From the letter:

in my view, about like making the same exhortation to a group of professional football fans on the assumption that they are “like minded,” when all they have done is to root for the same team that we do.

Because cheering on a sports team has everything to do with being concerned about future events and forward-planning for possible catastrophe’s… Derp. Horrible analogy.

There are few enough “like minded individuals” within a tightly knit family, or even in a pretty tight military unit, much less in the population at large. People should dispense with the notion that such a fantasy exists.

The inference being because it’s “a fantasy” according to whoever this guy is and whatever his credentials are and because “he says so”, we shouldn’t even bother trying, even though history has borne out again and again the “lone strong man” always fails not due to incompetence, but because he cannot stand against “mediocres” without number…

Part of me is wondering at this point if the letter writer is simply an Agent Provocateur trying some type of half-a$$ed COINTEL in an effort to keep people from tribing up in preparation of Bad Things happening… Personally, I’ve met quite a few “like minded individuals” living here on my own road..

I have repeatedly reminded him that he does not “know” anything, nor does anyone else, unless he or she has actually done it or experienced it. Reading about, talking about, or listening to others who read about, talk about, or otherwise expound on any subject does not constitute a reason to say to oneself: “I know.” There is only one way to know, in my opinion at least, and that is to know by the experience of doing.

I’ve never had cause to pull a fire alarm in the event of a fire. Do I “know” to pull the effing Fire Alarm if I see a fire raging? Yes.

Whoever this is has a point, but they are only 1/3 correct. There are three types of learning – learn by doing, learn by reading, learn by teaching. Him focusing only on the “learn by doing” aspect and then dismissing anyone who hasn’t “felled a tree” as not knowing how is just a straw man argument. Pick one thing you can get traction with, stand it up, knock it down and declare victory…

According to what this guy is putting down, a person wouldn’t “know” that fire is hot and will burn you unless you stick your bare hand in a fire.

I got into reloading by reading everything I could find on the subject – reccommended by other established reloaders – then went and bought the equipment. I “knew” the steps required to make good quality reload ammo without going through the steps. Making good quality ammo did not negate me “knowing” how to put it all together.

And Allen’s comments further lead me into the frustration I have with preppers who are constantly writing on various blogs a presumption of what “will” happen under certain circumstances, such as a societal collapse. Zombie biker gangs will roam the countryside, stores will be out of food in hours, gasoline will be unattainable, .22 caliber cartridges will be like gold, etc.

Reductio Ad Absurdum.


In other words, a cheap shot because he cannot argue his own case on it’s own merit. So he reduces people’s concerns to laughably outrageous scenarios in a blatant effort at mocking and disproving them. That he makes a half-hearted effort at redacting his cheap shot by saying “well, SOME things might happen, yeah..” afterwards doesn’t change the fact that it’s a cheap shot.

In point of fact, history does NOT repeat itself. But it does rhyme. And, human nature being what it is, past behavior can be a good indicator of future behavior. Therefore, if man-made or natural disasters and catastrophes have happened in the past, then they will happen in the future, and people will behave pretty much as they always have in response to it. The only question is “To what degree”?

In other words, if there is a famine and food becomes short, but there are relatively few people, then they will scrap for what little there is available. If there is a famine and there’s a large number of people, but still the same amount of food, then the “scrapping” becomes orders of magnitude worse for what little there is.

It ain’t rocket science.

This: there is only one person whom I can say (because I haven’t read everything, to be sure) actually knows about what it’s like in an economic collapse. He is Fernando Aquirre, who, in his book about the collapse in Argentina (2001-present), relates what he actually saw and did in that country during that collapse.

Then this, referring to American fiction on the matter: once again, that no one knows for sure what will happen.

The entire paragraph, which I will not post, is basically him denigrating works of fiction for being… fiction!

They are, by virtue of being FICTION, invented whole-cloth from the imagination of the author and are not factual. And in no way should be taken as gospel or indicative of what WILL happen during a full-on collapse in a modern, 1st world nation like These United States. We do, of course, have evidence to draw upon from history – Weimar Republic Germany, Zimbabwe, Russia, Argentina, Greece, etc… instead of pooh-poohing works of fiction, his efforts might be better spent by going to these countries and interviewing people who actually lived through the collapses. To my knowledge, it would be a work unique in the world.

Then he takes the Dunning Kruger Effect (the non-polite version is “You’re so stupid, you don’t know you’re stupid”) and, using that, sets up straw man after straw man to backstop his argument. The very fact that he is portraying himself as some sort of “expert” while citing the Dunning Kruger Effect – without grasping the irony – makes his comments borderline hilarious.

That’s the end of my sharpshooting this guy..

Do I know everything? Nope. Not even everything I should to survive, should something catastrophic happen. I know what I don’t know, in other words.

But what I do know, I know very, very well…

The wicked flee when none pursueth..." - Proverbs 28:1