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Agree economic collapse now appears to be the primary SHTF scenario. Through out history conventional warfare has seen a technological shift change the balance of power. For example the English Longbow took everyone else by surprise.

I suspect cyber warfare might be that change. Stand off and cripple your enemy without putting your assets in harms way. Weaken someones economy to the tipping point, and then attack their infrastructure when they are too weak to fight back. Have no idea how the scenario plays out. Does the attacked county start throwing missiles? Will they even know who to shoot the missiles at? What about alliances like NATO?

Any thoughts on if this makes sense?