Tagged: Daily Reckoning
March 30, 2014 at 4:16 pm #5438
I’ve spent a great deal of time researching the trigger points that might warn us that an Economic Collapse is coming. I read an article that I made some notes from defining some of the warning signs. I’ve lost the article, so I am not sure who to give credit for this list.
1. US Treasuries interest rate jumps sharply and stays there. (6 to 12 month warning)
2. Price of oil goes to $120 a barrel and stays there.
3. If the US food index goes above 240 for an extended length of time. (weeks or months warning of food riots)
4. Cat 5 hurricane hits Texas City/Houston (would cripple diesel production. No diesel, no trucks on the road to ship
My opinion is Number one is the one to watch. With the Fed dialing back their QE program and Russia threatening to move away from the Petro dollar and sell our debt could we see a jump in Treasuries interest in the near future?
Any thoughts?March 31, 2014 at 12:11 am #5633
Not saying your wrong, but I would like to know what you’re basing your list on. I think even if Houston was hit hard (no production) we would still see trucks on the road. Same for fuel hitting $120 a barrel. In both instances the expenses would be passed on to the consumers. People would dramatically reduce the amount that they purchase. .gov would increase the amount of free money to the young people on public assistance to prevent riots – retirees will starve or eat pet food, not riot. As to those with jobs? The 45-50% of the US who are productive, that is the key question.March 31, 2014 at 1:49 am #5677
I got the list from an article by an economist regarding economic collapse. It was a list of various scenarios. Agree with you totally on price of oil or Cat 5 hurricane. Would not be pleasant but would not bring country to it’s knees.
As I said in my post, I think the first item is the one to watch. If T bill interest goes up, even running the printing presses full time would not enable us to meet our debt obligations. It’s like that variable rate mortgage. As long as interest is near zero payment is easy. Jump that to 7% or higher interest and all of a sudden your mortgage payment is more than you can afford.
The other thing that concerns me is if China and Russia say we don’t need your petrodollars to do business, and by the way, we are getting rid of our T bills. Like a bank run, once confidence is lost, the collapse begins.
Wanted to get other’s input. When it happens, most will be surprised. Just hope that if we keep our eyes and ears open, we may have some warning. Sense ti’s coming. Just not sure if it’s ten days, ten months, or ten years.March 31, 2014 at 12:38 pm #5796
osagemarine, Yes you are right to a point but free money means more printing of money which means the dollar will devalue world wide the more we print it.
So what happens then?
Well Roadracer is right! The 1, 2, 3, 4, will happen over and over till it is over. Interest rate will jump, so Government interest on the debt will jump, Government will print faster to pay for the jump but it just keeps on growing out of control.
Price of oil goes even higher because dollar goes down world wide and higher interest paid on the debt on the Nation and the printing of even more money.
Food prices will go up world wide not just in the U. S.
The only reason the Fed is dialing back their QE program is because they need that QE program option for the future when all of this hits the fan.
The National debt is already at over 17.5 T. which many say that the point of no return is around 21 to 22 T.
Just go to http://www.usdebtclock.org/ and sit there and watch it for a minute.
People the numbers do not lie, they can’t lie there way out of this one.March 31, 2014 at 1:23 pm #5804
My signs that SHTF:
A friend in the local government calls and tells me to “hike the trail today” or some such comment.
A friend in the local law enforcement calls and asks to “long term rent” a cabin.
The local farmers and ranchers stop coming to the country store to drink coffee in the mornings.
A friend at the local WalMart tells me there is a special on bread today.
Yes these are all local indicators but I stay clued to the news.
RobinMarch 31, 2014 at 1:54 pm #5811
Oh…I think it has already started a while ago. Think the real question people really want to know is when to bug out if that’s their plan; or really kicking plans in to high gear in general. I just keep doing what I am doing and check a few people’s commentary/international news so I know what’s going on.
Particularly read Bill Bonner at Daily Reckoning. Plus love his humor. I think he’s brilliant – sees a much bigger view than I can ever hope to. He advises people with money. I don’t buy gold and silver or buy the stuff from his site. Just read and get the newsletter HE writes himself.March 31, 2014 at 2:12 pm #5815
tweva, I think the Government will not tell us when it will happen. It will happen and like the next day and no one will be ready, like an EMP. They may do an EMP or a war right before it is going to happen.
This is why we need to be ready right now, and be ready to stay were you are at if they do it this way. We may not have the time to leave were we are at.April 1, 2014 at 12:16 am #5987
The gov’t will continue to give the beggars more and more money. I agree that it makes ours worth less – inflation. But the gov’t doesn’t care about those of us who are beneath them and go to work. Unlike our enemies, our “ruling class” has never seen the “tip of the spear” or just how mean an nasty your average blue collar working stiff can be.
I think the trick is to have some things already decided upon. As an firearms instructor, I always ask students what are you willing to kill for? and what are you willing to die for? The for me, questions I ask myself for this are: “When do I decide to not got to work? When do I decide to max out the credit cards on canned food and gas? When do I decide to walk away?” I have always been told “Have a plan, if you don’t have a plan, you have already planned to fail.” For me, I pay attention to the economy and the news (both regular and other), but I also listen to people talk. Hopefully by the time mass riots start in multiple cities I have already started with my own plans.April 1, 2014 at 12:52 am #5993
osagemarine, You need to start with two to three extra cans a week, before you know it you will have a good amount.
You are a firearms instructor, man that is great! I own many firearms but am not that good at hitting thing when I shot.
You need to start looking around you for were you will get water in a SHTF. Save a lot of ammo.
Are you located in a city? I am in Miami Florida so riots will happen here.April 1, 2014 at 2:58 am #6017
People eat their dog instead of buying hamburger. The number of people ice fishing increases tenfold overnight. Food pantries running hard to keep up. More people watching the Walking Dead than CNN. $100 bills so good an ink pen is useless.April 1, 2014 at 3:13 am #6031
Unfortunately I agree with freedom… I think they will mask it and hide it as long as possible. After all of them have made it to their retreats in some other countries (I heard a while ago some wealthy people did build retreats in South America) then the rest of the people can deal with the problems.
Of course, some good guy politicians will stay and try to actually help and others politicians will stay because they are power hungry and want to seize the opportunity.
I will spend more of my time at our homestead away from the crowds anyway. This does not even have pure preparedness reasons. I love to be in the nature, grow plants, have space for a small wood workshop and so on.
Alea iacta est ("The die has been cast")April 1, 2014 at 11:03 am #6094
Jay, That is great that you own a homestead away from the City but remember to buy ammo because 3 to 4 weeks after the people in the cities find that there is no food in the city they will go to the homesteads to get the food and the homestead.
If the Government does an EMP before the economic collapse many of the people in the cities will know that it will take years for the electric to come back and the best way to live is to go to the homesteads/farms and grow food.
Some of these city people are good people but some are not. The good ones will do work on the homestead for food.
At some point you may want to let in some of the good ones to help with the lookout 24 hours a day.
These will be hard times for you. But remember it is still better to live were you are.April 1, 2014 at 12:45 pm #6098
There is really only 3 days of food in any area. If the delivery system fails for any reason, or the EBT cards don’t work, expect near imeadiate chaos.April 1, 2014 at 2:34 pm #6100
“Lights Out” is an interesting read.
SHTF for real when the Waltons go to their mountain and shut the door.
RobinApril 1, 2014 at 2:43 pm #6101
It depends from region to region.
For someone who live in Sweden for example it may seen that S. already hit the fan here in my region, but actually there are phases still to come.
One of the first and early sign is disruption in goods distribution, for example you can not find your favorite stuff in local stores.
Later comes confusion (or disruption) in local jobs, for example smarter people taking jobs out.
Of course some of the definite signs are if you see that people (usually more powerful) are suddenly leaving area, or town etc.
Great sources for looking for the signs are law enforcement people and local criminal organization members, they usually know what is coming.
As more signs you see, less you need to trust in mainstream media.
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