March 28, 2015 at 6:17 am #39438
Another interesting read.
After the last tablet post I’m just going to post the link.
Be sure and read what would be the last paragraph.March 28, 2015 at 8:40 am #39439
It seems to me that the authors commit the same error of not knowing that they attributed to everyone else. No advanced country has suffered a complete loss of electricity in a sudden event. Ferfal has not been through that type of event. Most of his comments I’ve read, are based on having some semblance of power & control structures intact. An example of his fantasy is the idea of going to a city for a job and security. For this to happen after a lights out scenario is a completely imaginary construct.
US cities are 100% dependent on outside support for food, water and every item used in daily life. Any manufacturing and heavy industrial processing that is still located near cities will cease. They will have nothing but the goods and materials that are in place at zero hour. Everyone knows this and to pretend otherwise is ..well, I don’t even want to say what it is. Finding a job where 100% of the population can’t work, in cities with over a million starving people. That isn’t going to happen. So what is reality and what is fiction? As the authors state, it hasn’t happened yet, so anyones guess is as good as anothers.March 28, 2015 at 12:23 pm #39441
So you’re discounting what is said because something that hasn’t happened yet to be fully experienced, hasn’t happened yet and may never happen.March 28, 2015 at 12:25 pm #39442
An article in my local paper today discussed the backup plans in case our internet service was sabotaged. This came about because of the big outage a while ago where vandals removed a big chunk of fiber optic cable in Arizona. It appears the owners of the local internet companies are preppers. If you ask me I’d say fiction became reality quite a while ago. Plans have been put into place for WCS. But everyone knows…. Plans fall apart. They don’t live up to expectations. The day comes when the pipes freeze, a tornado hits or the 500kv line goes down and you’re on your own. The Preppers better have done more than collect PDFs and bought up farms.March 28, 2015 at 12:50 pm #39444
So you’re discounting what is said because something that hasn’t happened yet to be fully experienced, hasn’t happened yet and may never happen.
2008 happened. I wish there was a tee shirt.March 28, 2015 at 12:51 pm #39445
“like minded individuals” That saying in untrue, there are no one that is like minded. Everyone is different and are always thinking in different directions.
The collapse in Argentina is something to learn by but this is only one country collapse. I do not see that in the future. We are seeing it right now Russia’s Ruble going down 50%, Greece in a collapse, the euro now is equal to the dollar, Euro is printing 60 billion a month to keep it from falling into a collapse, the U. S. printed for over a year and a half $80 billion a month, The U. S. debt is more then $18 Trillion so what happens when the interest goes up? Taxes will have to go up too to pay for it. Which is the next country to collapse(Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal).
Will Europe Euro collapse? If Europe’s Euro collapses will it take the U. S. with it to a collapse and then Russia and China?
I see a world economical collapse happening. The thing is how long will it take before it collapses? The printing of Dollars and Euros will keep things from collapsing till a point which is the question we do not know.
The world governments know about when it will not be able to control the economy. Will they start a war to keep everyone’s eyes away from the economy when it is close to a collapse? I see a world collapse so if this happens in the future we do not have anything to compare it to.
There are many questions that we the little guys can’t answer so we prepare as best as we can. One thing is for sure the debts keep on going up world wide.March 28, 2015 at 12:58 pm #39446
I kind of agree with 74 here. The US has seen a break down of all services in a large city – New Orleans. That is what will happen in the US cities. Look at all the protests and damage that is done by FSA when they don’t get their “fair share.” This is the reality and proof that we have regarding cities and what will take place if services go out.
http://ageofdecadence.comMarch 28, 2015 at 2:18 pm #39450
Could be true , but in America , over 75% of the population already lives in the cities vs. 90% of the population being rural in the 1800’s . So if true , the only thing that is going to change is people moving from one city to the next city until they find the right fit for them . I see the real problem with preppers being the thinking things are going road warrior for the next ten generations . Look at the collapse of the Soviet Union , when that happened , nothing worked like it used to , all the governmental systems broke down that people were used to , etc. It was chaos for a couple of years , but what did happen was infrastructure was taken over by local authorities and got running again at the small local level . Instead of the snowball rolling downhill from a strong central government ( there was no government ) , the snowball started rolling uphill , starting at the local level . It also is worth understanding and looking at , that they made a 180 degree turn from what was , to what is . They rejected Communism in favor of a western style free market economy , a Federated representative Republic vs. a Communist form of government . That is a huge undertaking for any country , they have a long way to go , but at the same time , they have come a long way in a short amount of time . But it started at the local level out .March 28, 2015 at 2:55 pm #39451
So you’re discounting what is said because something that hasn’t happened yet to be fully experienced, hasn’t happened yet and may never happen.
2008 happened. I wish there was a tee shirt.
It happened, then happened again in 2012, you can stil get the t-shirts with the big Zero on them.
Maybe the Mayans were right after all, just wasn’t a sudden end.March 28, 2015 at 2:58 pm #39452
Could be true , but in America , over 75% of the population already lives in the cities vs. 90% of the population being rural in the 1800’s . So if true , the only thing that is going to change is people moving from one city to the next city until they find the right fit for them . I see the real problem with preppers being the thinking things are going road warrior for the next ten generations . Look at the collapse of the Soviet Union , when that happened , nothing worked like it used to , all the governmental systems broke down that people were used to , etc. It was chaos for a couple of years , but what did happen was infrastructure was taken over by local authorities and got running again at the small local level . Instead of the snowball rolling downhill from a strong central government ( there was no government ) , the snowball started rolling uphill , starting at the local level . It also is worth understanding and looking at , that they made a 180 degree turn from what was , to what is . They rejected Communism in favor of a western style free market economy , a Federated representative Republic vs. a Communist form of government . That is a huge undertaking for any country , they have a long way to go , but at the same time , they have come a long way in a short amount of time . But it started at the local level out .
Agreed, how’s that for unusual?
And well said.March 28, 2015 at 3:51 pm #39458
It’s all a matter of degree. What Ferfal lived through were difficult economic times, not a collapse. That he or others use the word collapse is a matter of semantics. It adds more drama perhaps but society was still functioning adequately enough that people could move to the cities for jobs. I can see migration towards the cities when the overall economic situation isn’t good, and that’ll work until the threshold is crossed to where the word collapse becomes the best choice of words. We are already in a period where our young are moving to the cities to find jobs. Vermont’s population has grown only 1% in the past decade and that’s only because the largest city Burlington grew about 8%. My town lost about 9% of its population in the past decade and the expectation is that it’ll keep dropping for some years to come. Come a real collapse, I expect that the young that left for the cities will come back home if they can make it.March 28, 2015 at 4:33 pm #39462
I’m not discounting what they said, I’m appling their own words to the ideas they put forward. I’m certain what would happen in a US financial collapse is not the same as what will happen after a failure of the grid. The differential in proportional damages to infrastructures is obvious. Zero capacity in every measurable aspect of productivity is quite different then a reduced capacity with mechanical/electrical systems still operable. I have no doubt they would consider “me a know it all” but in truth I don’t give a shlt what they would think about me. I have 60 years of life experiences and observations to base my opinions and decisions.March 28, 2015 at 5:04 pm #39464
From the letter:
in my view, about like making the same exhortation to a group of professional football fans on the assumption that they are “like minded,” when all they have done is to root for the same team that we do.
Because cheering on a sports team has everything to do with being concerned about future events and forward-planning for possible catastrophe’s… Derp. Horrible analogy.
There are few enough “like minded individuals” within a tightly knit family, or even in a pretty tight military unit, much less in the population at large. People should dispense with the notion that such a fantasy exists.
The inference being because it’s “a fantasy” according to whoever this guy is and whatever his credentials are and because “he says so”, we shouldn’t even bother trying, even though history has borne out again and again the “lone strong man” always fails not due to incompetence, but because he cannot stand against “mediocres” without number…
Part of me is wondering at this point if the letter writer is simply an Agent Provocateur trying some type of half-a$$ed COINTEL in an effort to keep people from tribing up in preparation of Bad Things happening… Personally, I’ve met quite a few “like minded individuals” living here on my own road..
I have repeatedly reminded him that he does not “know” anything, nor does anyone else, unless he or she has actually done it or experienced it. Reading about, talking about, or listening to others who read about, talk about, or otherwise expound on any subject does not constitute a reason to say to oneself: “I know.” There is only one way to know, in my opinion at least, and that is to know by the experience of doing.
I’ve never had cause to pull a fire alarm in the event of a fire. Do I “know” to pull the effing Fire Alarm if I see a fire raging? Yes.
Whoever this is has a point, but they are only 1/3 correct. There are three types of learning – learn by doing, learn by reading, learn by teaching. Him focusing only on the “learn by doing” aspect and then dismissing anyone who hasn’t “felled a tree” as not knowing how is just a straw man argument. Pick one thing you can get traction with, stand it up, knock it down and declare victory…
According to what this guy is putting down, a person wouldn’t “know” that fire is hot and will burn you unless you stick your bare hand in a fire.
I got into reloading by reading everything I could find on the subject – reccommended by other established reloaders – then went and bought the equipment. I “knew” the steps required to make good quality reload ammo without going through the steps. Making good quality ammo did not negate me “knowing” how to put it all together.
And Allen’s comments further lead me into the frustration I have with preppers who are constantly writing on various blogs a presumption of what “will” happen under certain circumstances, such as a societal collapse. Zombie biker gangs will roam the countryside, stores will be out of food in hours, gasoline will be unattainable, .22 caliber cartridges will be like gold, etc.
Reductio Ad Absurdum.
In other words, a cheap shot because he cannot argue his own case on it’s own merit. So he reduces people’s concerns to laughably outrageous scenarios in a blatant effort at mocking and disproving them. That he makes a half-hearted effort at redacting his cheap shot by saying “well, SOME things might happen, yeah..” afterwards doesn’t change the fact that it’s a cheap shot.
In point of fact, history does NOT repeat itself. But it does rhyme. And, human nature being what it is, past behavior can be a good indicator of future behavior. Therefore, if man-made or natural disasters and catastrophes have happened in the past, then they will happen in the future, and people will behave pretty much as they always have in response to it. The only question is “To what degree”?
In other words, if there is a famine and food becomes short, but there are relatively few people, then they will scrap for what little there is available. If there is a famine and there’s a large number of people, but still the same amount of food, then the “scrapping” becomes orders of magnitude worse for what little there is.
It ain’t rocket science.
This: there is only one person whom I can say (because I haven’t read everything, to be sure) actually knows about what it’s like in an economic collapse. He is Fernando Aquirre, who, in his book about the collapse in Argentina (2001-present), relates what he actually saw and did in that country during that collapse.
Then this, referring to American fiction on the matter: once again, that no one knows for sure what will happen.
The entire paragraph, which I will not post, is basically him denigrating works of fiction for being… fiction!
They are, by virtue of being FICTION, invented whole-cloth from the imagination of the author and are not factual. And in no way should be taken as gospel or indicative of what WILL happen during a full-on collapse in a modern, 1st world nation like These United States. We do, of course, have evidence to draw upon from history – Weimar Republic Germany, Zimbabwe, Russia, Argentina, Greece, etc… instead of pooh-poohing works of fiction, his efforts might be better spent by going to these countries and interviewing people who actually lived through the collapses. To my knowledge, it would be a work unique in the world.
Then he takes the Dunning Kruger Effect (the non-polite version is “You’re so stupid, you don’t know you’re stupid”) and, using that, sets up straw man after straw man to backstop his argument. The very fact that he is portraying himself as some sort of “expert” while citing the Dunning Kruger Effect – without grasping the irony – makes his comments borderline hilarious.
That’s the end of my sharpshooting this guy..
Do I know everything? Nope. Not even everything I should to survive, should something catastrophic happen. I know what I don’t know, in other words.
But what I do know, I know very, very well…
The wicked flee when none pursueth..." - Proverbs 28:1March 28, 2015 at 5:33 pm #39468
Preppers are also fixated with the concept of the .22 ammo . Why ? they suck . I dont own one and dont plan to . Nothing my shotgun , AK , or pellet gun cant do just as good or better . As far as the concept of a hand to mouth scrounging for materials mentality goes ………..then a pellet gun makes even more sense , as you could easily make a gang mold and melt the lead like they did in the colonial time . But again , will it really come down to that ?
In the bigger picture of a collapse , another important lesson from the USSR collapse we can take some comfort in is the fact that , when that happened , the world was understandably worried about their vast nuclear arsenal . Yes there are a few warheads , that to this day are unaccounted for , but by in large , the people running those places , and in control of them were responsible enough to make sure they didnt move until there was a central government in place to take possession of them . I believe that this country would be no different . The people in charge of certain things do understand the gravity and importance of keeping things out of the wrong hands , and will take steps on their own initiative to do so . I believe that will absolutely happen here .March 28, 2015 at 6:17 pm #39470
As with anything, guns are a toolbox.
The .22lr has uses. The first being a training device. The S&W K22, an L-frame and an N-frame all have pretty much the same controls and sights, so a n00b shooter won’t be confused by different controls when they step up in power…
The second thing is that .22lr ammo is everywhere. That being said, it is also very easy to suppress a .22lr. Contrary to what folks think, a suppressed .22 – either rifle or pistol (not revolver. You can’t really suppress a revolver) – has plenty of uses in the world.
I wouldn’t rely so much on an air rifle or pistol. Either because they require a separate compressed CO2 capsule – which may or may not be available – or rely on springs and valving that are subject to deterioration, and I don’t know of anyone doing repair work on them. Myself included. It is also fairly easy to knock together a working single shot .22 out of junk found in the average garage or scrounged up wherever. Not too sure about pneumatic guns, since I have never built any…
Feeding pneumatic rifles or pistols won’t really be a problem… I think maintaining them over the long haul would be a problem.
Plus, anyone who pooh-poohs being shot with a .22lr – especially one of the truncated hollowpoints – probably has never been shot by one or seen anyone shot with one. They go in and bounce all over the place. Personally, I’d rather be shot with a .32 ACP or a .25 than a .22lr…
Not sharpshooting ya… just offering my humble opinion. For what it’s worth…
The wicked flee when none pursueth..." - Proverbs 28:1
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