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  • #45546
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    We’ve got pieces of this discussion already woven through multiple threads on the Forum, but perhaps it’s time to pull them into one specific one here in order to avoid pulling other topics too far off the original topic. The intent is to post and discuss things we see happening that appear to be indicators of just how fast we’re proceeding to the edge of the “cliff” (whether social, economic, political, infrastructure, whatever). Without intending this to be the sole area of concern (it is not!), here’s an interesting factor that just occurred yesterday for the first time in many years. And when viewed in perspective, represents what I think could be a most troubling “sign.”

    Yesterday the $US index rose above 100 for the first time since March of this year, and the last time it hit 100 was over 10 years ago. The Index was created in 1973 when the $US was set at 100.00 against a basket of world currencies (Euro 57.6 %, Japanese yen 13.6 %, British pound 11.9 %, Canadian dollar 9.1 %, Swedish krona 4.2 %, and Swiss franc 3.6 %). The following chart is not the actual level, but the deviation from the “norm” since 1973 in standard deviations. What’s interesting, particularly, is the trend lately. We’re at a very high level NOT because the $US is strong, but only because everything else is substantially weaker. That ought to scare a lot of folks – but it doesn’t.

    So – a sign on of the times, meaning that we’re getting closer to one of the major cliffs? It certainly would appear to be more likely. And more interesting, look at the movement of both gold and oil relative to the $US in this chart. If history holds true, much to my personal disappointment, gold is NOT going to shoot up. It took years after the previous plunges in the $US for gold to come back nicely.

    [attachment file=”DollarIndex1973-2015.jpg”]

    #45552
    Profile photo of MountainBiker
    MountainBiker
    Survivalist
    member10

    GS, the chart attachment didn’t come through. Just going on what you said, that everyone else is worse off isn’t exactly a reassuring feeling.

    You are talking at the macro level but here are a few observations at the micro level. Last week I asked the Town Treasurer how the current level of people in arrears on their property taxes is versus prior years. She said it is about the same which I took as a good sign that locally things aren’t getting worse. I see all property transactions in my role at Town Hall and while most property is selling for less than assessed value, prices are holding relatively steady. That’s a good thing given the population is slowly declining at the same time that it is aging. The biggest economic debate across the State are school costs. Ongoing enrollment declines in combination with ever increasing mandates have pushed per student costs to astronomical levels, about $16,000 per student, due mostly to so many small schools with 5 to 10 kids per grade. Locally we have 1/3 fewer kids per grade in the elementary school than we do at the middle/high school, so it is going to get a lot worse going forward. The local Boy Scout troop disbanded this year for lack of boys. The local baseball league is struggling to field teams and may not be able to keep going either. Rural areas slowly depopulating and aging is a nationwide phenomena.

    #45556
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    It looks like the attachment made it this time.

    Just a few years back there was supposed to be a major increase in personnel at a nearby military installation, and housing was thrown up (that term fits either way – it was mostly garbage housing that looked good on the outside but won’t last 25 years). They screamed and yelled about tax increases to build more schools. Not only didn’t the numbers show up as claimed by those wanting more tax money and real estate development, but now of course the big draw down is siphoning off even more people. Existing homes are being sold at losses or foreclosed, cheaply “renovated” homes are being rented to low income folks in previously nice, nearly crime free neighborhoods, businesses are closing leaving large numbers of unoccupied shopping strips, etc. A huge mall just south of Atlanta not only sat virtually empty for years, it’s now been closed and bulldozed entirely. New spec buildings are going up all over, while others sit empty or are even demolished. The logic of it all escapes me entirely, other than somebody’s either delusional, or has figured out a way to make money off of somebody else.

    The short of it is, at both a macro and micro level, nothing makes sense in any way that’s sane. Yet to watch the “news” is to get the idea that a few bad things are happening, but the economy is robust, recovering, able to handle the coming interest rate hike by the Fed, etc. The DOW is back up almost to 18,000 again, the Nikkei is soaring (again), the NASDAQ is over 5100, gold is down (“meaning” of course that there’s no risk of anything bad happening), the $US is THE strong currency of the world (so they tell us), so what’s to worry? As we recently traveled down through middle and south Georgia, it was just gut wrenching how many fields had obviously never even been plowed this year, how many houses were just abandoned, businesses closed, and even whole towns effectively gone (just the shells of the buildings). Only corporate America (or world) is flourishing. And little towns like yours, previously what America was all about, are literally dying away. If find it very, very sad. (not to mention unsustainable).

    #45559
    Profile photo of Roadracer
    Roadracer
    Survivalist
    member7

    The story that the public is getting drives me crazy. Like you I’ve watch the indicators like the velocity of money and the Baltic Dry Index continue downward on an accelerating slope. I read the number of people what have allegedly given up look for work and it is distressing. Even more so that they are not counted in the unemployment numbers.

    Here in the Midwest I also have noticed what seems a lot more fields lying fallow. Yet I drive past two commercial farms with dairy barns that run over 1/2 mile long.

    The stock market is up, use your credit card to buy what you want, and enjoy life. That motto is not only the motto of individuals but also governments. Is this a repeat of the Roaring 20’s?

    Everything looks out of balance. So the only thing I can think to do is try and keep balance in my life.

    #45561
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    JERUSALEM — Israel on Sunday suspended contacts with European Union representatives on Mideast peace issues to protest the 28-nation bloc’s decision to label Israeli exports from the West Bank. The decision, which deepened a fissure with the EU over the labeling issue, came as a rash of Palestinian attacks showed no signs of relenting. In Sunday’s violence, Palestinians carried out two new stabbing attacks — wounding a woman and a police officer. One of the assailants was shot dead. … The EU says it opposes boycotts, and says its move is a matter of consumer protection.

    http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/11/29/world/middleeast/ap-ml-israel-palestinians.html?_r=0

    Hmmmm … “a matter of consumer of consumer protection,” eh? Nothing to do with any boycott, don’tchaknow.

    And Israel’s retaliation by “suspend[ing of] contacts with European Union representatives on Mideast peace issues to protest …?” Now THAT certainly ought to help bring about peace.

    #45562
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    Well this could just as easily go under the “Turkey shoots down Russian jet” thread. But it goes deeper, I suspect (as in further provocation and splitting). Turkey wants money and entry into the EU, the EU wants – hmmmm – more chaos? In a move certain {choke!} to quell tensions on all sides:

    Turkey will help stem the flow of migrants to Europe in return for cash, visas and renewed talks on joining the EU in a deal struck on Sunday that the Turkish prime minister called a “new beginning” for the uneasy neighbors.

    Leaders of the 28 European Union states met Turkish premier Ahmet Davutoglu in Brussels on Sunday evening to give their collective political blessing to an agreement hammered out by diplomats over the past few weeks.

    So, the talks have been going on “over the past few weeks.” Just at the very end, Turkey shoots down a Russian jet (to show good faith???), and – voila! Turkey gets more money (3 billion Euros [$3,175,800,855 US]) and moves closer to EU membership.

    And in related news, see attached photo with caption. (symbolic of course, but maybe not so….)

    [attachment file=”PardonTurkey.jpg”]

    #45564
    wildartist
    wildartist
    Survivalist
    member7

    I am not keeping up with all the news*, and probably would have a stroke if I did. Whenever I do look at all the chaos, and seemingly insane actions and decisions, either the govts are stupid (which they are not) or acting with evil agendas, our own included. Events are unfolding in a surreal panorama…something I never thought I would live to see. America no longer exists as I knew it, except perhaps in areas such as yours, Mountain Biker. A dark cloudbank is on the horizon and people on the whole are oblivious. I have often likened it to the opening scenes in John Wayne’s “Big Jake”…everyone sees the riders approaching but no one deems them a threat until it is way too late. “Couldn’t happen…”

    I hold very little hope for the next election since the current ruler got in twice, perhaps with dead people voting multiple times in multiple precincts. Even if someone with good intent and the testosterone to DO something, got into office, it may be entirely too late to reverse the damages. Like trying to treat Stage 4 cancer. The information you are posting about the $US and world currencies shows how artificial the global house of cards really is. Sorry if I sound cynical but I see no one doing anything real on a large meaningful scale. Except perhaps the manipulators behind the scenes whom we know little about. All of us on the forums are prepping for ourselves and our families, possibly our small communities. Can we truly withstand what is coming? It may be worldwide in scale.

    *Bushrat has been recovering from emergency heart bypass surgery, and I am occupied with his care at home. We do not have the financial resources to do much else than prep food and ammo, pray to God and vow we will not go down easily. No white flags or burkas in our future…

    #45565
    Whirlibird
    Whirlibird
    Survivalist
    member10

    Wildartist, hopefully little more than food is needed in the coming days.
    For any of us.

    Our hopes and prayers for Bushrat and you.

    #45568
    Profile photo of MountainBiker
    MountainBiker
    Survivalist
    member10

    wildartist our thoughts and prayers will be with you and Bushrat. I’ve long thought you folks would be the perfect kind of friends and neighbors to have.

    My guess is that the “old” America still exists in many rural areas but rural areas are generally in a very slow decline nationwide as the population continues to shift to urban/suburban areas.

    #45571
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    MB, I think the word “old” has multiple applications. Generally, those over about 60 at the youngest, are the last ones to have been taught much of anything about the Constitution, and why it was constructed the way it was. They were also among the last to truly be taught “proper manners” (a term that would be laughed at today in normal conversation in under-50 circles), and they began growing up before drugs were widely even discussed, let alone used in most of society. Marijuana was beginning to make its way into more mainstream society, but the combination of the Vietnam “war” + drugs + the “sexual revolution” was a massive turning point for the country. Anyone much younger than about 65 has no recollection of the Cuban missile crisis, fallout shelters, routine drills in school where we got under our desks and covered our heads as we also learned about “snow” that would be falling from the sky (radioactive fallout). They either don’t even recall, or were too young to be significantly impacted by the assassination of the President of the United States. Words like atlas, minuteman, and megaton weren’t regularly used, or were only used in other contexts by those much under 65. Even most over 65 don’t know how US senators were originally selected, let alone the much more important answer to the question, “why?” Few know that the concept of the income tax actually violates other constitutional principles. The Fed? Well, that’s a US government agency — isn’t it?

    In short, with the exception of the children of the over-65 crowd, almost no one knows what the concept of “liberty” really means, as hammered out into the best political document ever created by mankind. Even Jefferson was lamenting the degradation of the Constitution as early as 1820. The idea of having a large turnout to welcome back our returning military is the stuff of old black and white newsreel footage that has no real meaning today. Those that even know what “honor flights” are, generally don’t “get it,” simply because they don’t have the background to be able to “get it.” So inside of 30 years, there will effectively be no one left that “gets” what “America” was supposed to be all about (and at least largely still was, despite its flaws). Changes to the Constitution won’t be all that necessary because the document itself will have been effectively replaced by whatever unconstitutional law Congress passes and the President signs, or an executive order signed by the President that extends far beyond the Executive Branch of the government – but who will even bother to call those out, based on the Constitution, when the Constitution holds no singular importance any longer?

    Thus, the few areas such as the one in which you fortunately live, MB, are symbolic of the aging of America. It’s all but dead. Lincoln freed all the slaves (it must be true – that’s what everyone believes). Poverty breeds violence (no one remembers poor, but very neatly kept all-black neighborhoods of the ’50s where everyone dressed up in their very best clothes to go to church on Sunday, and no one rioted despite oppression). And the myths of ignorance and lack of education continue, and will continue from this time onward. I’d say, “America, RIP,” but it will be anything except peaceful.

    Wildartist (and Bushrat), I suppose your post explains why I’ve seen little from you since joining the Forum earlier this year – sounds like you’ve had your hands full. But it also sounds like those here that are more familiar with you know your character – which comes through in your understanding evident in your post above. Thank you for standing for what you stand for, and my most sincere wishes for a good recovery and many more years on this earth to continue influencing others for good.

    #45573
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    This has been in the works a while now, but today it appears it’s going to become official:

    Chinese yuan to become global reserve currency

    You can also read all about it in the cheering sections of the Chicago Tribune, Bloomberg, CNBC, etc.

    In the meantime, Sweden and other countries are already testing out cashless societies. Just think about what that would mean when the only legal way you could “buy” something was through a means automatically tracked by FedGov. Don’t see the connection between this paragraph and the ones above it? Go do some digging….

    #45574
    Profile photo of MountainBiker
    MountainBiker
    Survivalist
    member10

    GS, certainly one of the characteristics of rural America is that the median age is noticeably older than the median age for the country as a whole but when I used the word old I was meaning old as in former or years ago. I fully understand what you are saying though. The 60+ crowd was taught both in and out of school very differently than what occurs now.

    The Chinese yuan thing is strange in that it comes at a time when the Chinese economy is on the edge of implosion.

    #45575
    wildartist
    wildartist
    Survivalist
    member7

    Thank you for your thoughts and prayers, Whirlibird, Mountain Biker and GeorgiaSaint. God has brought us through many hard times, and I trust Him for those that are coming.

    What all of you write is only too true. I appreciate the awareness and analytical thinking evident on this forum. It makes me wonder how Jeremiah felt as Jerusalem was besieged, knowing what the future held and yet being despised, mocked and imprisoned for his warnings. When in high school (many years ago ;) ) I wrote an essay on Patrick Henry’s statement “Give me liberty or give me death!” The reality of that choice playing out is increasing…

    And yes, MB, I could only wish that we were physically neighbors to some of you. More later…

    #45576
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    The Chinese yuan thing is strange in that it comes at a time when the Chinese economy is on the edge of implosion.

    TPTB (the powers that be) certainly know that, too – even better than we do. So when things like this happen or are in the works, it suggests to me that there is something much bigger going on behind the scenes. Add that to the obvious massive manipulation in virtually all financial markets, and the picture just seems to get more and more clear. Just one of the many things that comes to mind with this is a very large and well developed plan, probably close to completion now, to pull the rug out from under the $US, even despite all the Chinese holdings in the dollar. I have had a very large sense for some time now that we (the US) are being set up big time, and Bommie is a major player in it all. But of course most people just see all the reflections off my tin foil hat….

    #45577
    Profile photo of Roadracer
    Roadracer
    Survivalist
    member7

    I think the Chinese positioned themselves brilliantly for this to happen. They did it by making treaties with a number of countries for mutual exchange. For example they have a deal with Russia that the oil they buy will be exchanged between the yuan and the ruble. They have done similar things with a number of countries, so when they go to the IMF, they can rightly say “look it is already happening with the following countries, so why not make it official.”

    GS is quite right that this has been the plan for a long time. If I’m not mistaken both China and Russia have been quietly dumping their US dollar holdings. The IMF will prop up the dollar for a while to avoid any massive disruption in the world economies. The next steps will be slow and gradual until one day we will wake up and realize that the dollar is no longer needed as reserve currency.

    It is also no secret that the China, Russia, and India are buying gold at an incredible pace. So we may actually see a gold backed currency coming from them.

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