November 11, 2014 at 12:21 pm #28869
“I know many preppers are focused on the “long emergency”…….. find it harder — maybe impossible — prepare for this type of black swan event.”
I found this quote from one of our other valued forum members and thought this might be a valuable discussion.I think every winter for 25 years I’ve lost power for some period of time, usually only a day or two, nearby power has been out 2 weeks.
Sometime or another I just figure it won’t come back on or someother horrible event will occur. But I don’t see a big difference in my prepping except in the volume of supplies.November 11, 2014 at 4:53 pm #28887
I have always thought long term. But supply levels could still use some additions for a really long term emergency. his could morph into a really good discussion.
"ROGUE ELECTRICIAN" Hoping to be around to re-energize the New World.....
Cogito, ergo armatus sumNovember 11, 2014 at 6:45 pm #28902
One thing I have tried to do is encourage my neighbors and friends to do seasonal food storage, anywhere from 3-6 months of food. Some of my friends do up to a year’s worth. This would have been a no-brainer for pioneers or homesteaders of a generation or two ago. It would have been a matter of survival. A pioneer that didn’t prepare for the winter, would be a dead pioneer by spring!
The right away benefit for modern people, is you can get your food supplies during the fall bounty very inexpensively and live off those supplies all winter long. This saves money for the household, plus saves time by not having weekly trips to the store, and saves money again, by avoiding spontaneous purchasing that can happen during a shopping trips.
IF preppers as a group, could encourage their neighbors and friends to do this kind of prepping (3-6 months of seasonal food storage for saving money), we would be safer as a population because more households would be prepared for a short term shortages. Also, if you didn’t have an item, your neighbor might have that item, and vise versa.
Hell, if we could even get people to find their kitchens and start cooking food again, we would be better off as a population. Here’s a post for newcomers to nourishing traditional foods and eating more seasonally and locally.
Here’s my post for newcomers thinking about food storage and a system of rotation.November 11, 2014 at 9:26 pm #28913
I think I have accomplished my short term goals. I should be able to last six months if i ration properly and nothing stupid happens.
If a long term event occurs, i might risk everything heading to the nearest airport capable of landing jets, locate the above ground air exchange unit, and start yelling down the tube at the cowards who left us all to die. ( i don’t think ill make it that far anyway lol).
Have a look at this small town in b.c. on google earth. This event occured during the syria crisis last year, and during multiple military aircraft being scrambled from calgary to the west coast, and awaks headed north to intercept the russian bombers that where on “excersizes” north of our boarder. (watched the fighters fly over our house that week even.)
Never be afraid to do the righteous thing, nothing righteous is ever easy.November 11, 2014 at 11:49 pm #28930
Today I changed my water heater. I had to remove the water to pull it out. Well there is a lot of water 40 to 50 gallons. I think more then 75% of the population will die of not having water and will not even think about there water heater. So remember that if there is a large SHTF that you may find water in many homes.
This is something to remember if you live in an apartment building, many will leave the building so there will be many water heaters full of water.November 11, 2014 at 11:56 pm #28931
A short hose with the female hose fitting will help as the drains are usually close to the floor. A hose about 20″ long will let you drain most of the tank into a container.November 12, 2014 at 12:25 am #28937
*chuckle* you guys seen the myth buster episode with water heaters? They are so usefull. lol.
Never be afraid to do the righteous thing, nothing righteous is ever easy.November 12, 2014 at 12:44 am #28944
Nope, It really depends where the heater is installed if there will be water in them. Water heaters installed in basements with all the plumbing above them will stlll be full. So what did myth busters have to say?November 12, 2014 at 1:00 am #28947
74, more or less along the lines of KAAAABOOOOOM. “bet you didn’t know what was lurking in your basement!”.
Never be afraid to do the righteous thing, nothing righteous is ever easy.November 12, 2014 at 2:32 am #28960
My prepping is for a long term scenario that includes no electricity. Note that I said scenario rather than event. The difference is recovery from events is very likely whereas a SHTF scenario is something for which we won’t ever get back to “normal” again, but rather to a new reality. A hurricane, tornado, earthquake, ice storm, flood etc are all events that we can recover from and have a return to normalcy. I don’t prep for events. I prep for SHTF scenarios.November 12, 2014 at 5:12 pm #29007
For long term SHTF water is one of the most important prep areas. I have been a developer for over 30 years and can tell you that if the electricity goes down all water heaters will be full. Water heaters work on the cold water going in to the water heater so the presser of the cold water has the hot water go to the bathroom etc. If you cut off the cold water the water heater is still full of water so you will have 30, 40 or 50 gallons of water in all the water heaters.
You will have to filter it after many days go by but it is water that many will not know about.November 12, 2014 at 5:54 pm #29009
A lot depends on the vintage of the water heater and your local water.
Our last house, the 30 gallon water heater may have held 10 gallons from all the buildup inside.November 12, 2014 at 7:06 pm #29019
Emergencies to me mean short-term problems then everything will go back to a new normal but similar to the world as it is now. Short-term emergency planning should focus on blackouts, floods, fires, divorce, etc. I would not expect most people to go beyond 1-6 months of food supplies and some extra equipment that would help with a short-term, grid-down situation.
When I think about what some people call the long emergency… my thinking gets really fuzzy. I am interested in this topic, but for me, it’s a lifestyle choice. It involves traditional homesteading skills, small scale alternative energy systems, permaculture, forest gardening, water management, livestock, hunting, fishing, wildcrafting, etc. It would also involve regional knowledge about open pollinating seeds, propagating cuttings, heritage breeds, etc. It’s a lot to learn if you want to face the long emergency with any change of surviving.
BUT the problem with these systems is the need for peace or a very low population density. Peace is very important. Without peace, no one can “waste” energy on growing food or developing regional specific, food producing plants and livestock. Without peace why would anyone work, if they know some group of people could come and take their productivity.
Remember the means of production with not be destroyed everywhere, immediately. (If that happened, we would all be dead anyway.) Factories will still be standing. Skilled workers will be available and wanting to work. Stockpiles of materials and energy will be useful for production. The world has accumulated capital that can take a very long time to consume before it’s truly gone. Then collapse could happen, but it’s a very long way away. Actually, it can take decades to work through accumulated capital before a collapse happens. Here’s an article about the situation in Russia that describes a historical nation-state collapse. It also explains why command economies fail.November 12, 2014 at 10:08 pm #29031
c, long term can be a collapse long term of collapse tomorrow, also maybe an EMP attack, Sun flare, Nuclear, cyber attack. So there are many and more likely that when it happens no one though it was coming at the time. So we have to have some things prepared and ideas on where to find food and water if you are at the time in a city or town.
I personally believe it will be an economical collapse but the government may do a false flag before like a war, an EMP etc to have the world not see the real problem of the collapse and blame the collapse on the false flag event. So we may not be ready when it happens.November 12, 2014 at 10:55 pm #29033
freedom, predicting the future is just speculation. Most of the really big events that have changed the world for the good or bad have been black swan events. Black swan events are by definition, unpredictable, even though people will “predict” them in retrospect.
As individuals, we can only focus on a few tasks at a time. Many of the big things in life are completely out of our personal control. We all have limited time and financial resources. After focusing on basic household emergency preparation and 3-6 months of food and supply storage, we will have diminishing returns (reduced marginal utility) from doing more. We might also waste our most precious resource, our life energy, which might be better spend enjoying family, friends and living a full life.
I want to live off-the-grid in a mobile, stealth housing system. I want to grow a forest garden full of exotic mushrooms and wildcraft medicine from my bioregion and work on a breeding program for pastured livestock. Yeah, I’ll be better positioned then the next guy if SHTF happens, but I’m really doing it because it’s fun and I think it will be a better life. Don’t let fear of the future make you not enjoy life right now. Don’t let an uncertain future derail building plans for a beautiful future full of wonderful people and neat projects.
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