July 6, 2014 at 3:05 am #17952
Another thought experiment, since I really enjoyed reading the responses from you guys. This time we’ll be talking about a pandemic. In this experiment, the pandemic will be much the same as the 1918 Spanish Flu (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic).
So lets start. The following info is a lead up to where you’re at now, where this flu is at, etc.
– Three weeks ago there were scattered reports of several towns in western China in which the population became very sick.
– The MSM picked up the story, but then because of the latest celebrity break up, promptly forgot where China was, let alone why so many people got sick.
– Two weeks ago there were reports of sick people in over 18 different countries.
– Three days ago, the WHO said that this new mysterious flu is out of control and they have no way of stopping or slowing it down since it has mutated.
– Right now, you just saw that the death count in your country has just surpassed 10,000, with scores more infected.
What do you do? What have you already begun to do? Have you bugged out? Are you barricading you and yours inside? What next?
I’ll also add that this isn’t all on this particular thought experiment. I’ll add a few curve balls/events/difficult choices in tomorrow or so.
Canadian Patriot. Becoming self-sufficient.July 6, 2014 at 3:25 am #17953
My first thought: Has the Strategic National Reserve been deployed? My CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) was part of a SNR mock deployment. A convoy with “Special Medication” was sent to a local town. A gym had been set up to treat the public. A cattle pen like containment system was used to process all the “public” taking part in the exercise.
If there was a real emergency our team would activate. There are certain places in this county that would be set up to handle the treatments. Arrangements would be made for folks that had to “shelter in place.” This would be nursing homes, hospitals and people that could not be moved.
Being part of the response means you are the first to be treated.
RobinJuly 6, 2014 at 3:31 am #17955
Love it Red. These exercises always get the ideas flowing.
At this stage of the game (and before you start throwing monkey wrenches everywhere) I’ve stopped going to work. An emergency room is no place to be, and if one of my patients is suspect while I’m there I’d have to quarantine myself from my family which is not part of the plan. For the meantime, me and mine are huddled at home playing Scrabble and re-inventorying supplies.July 6, 2014 at 5:47 am #17974
Ah man, I hate bugs and getting sick… you would pick this one, wouldn’t you?
Gotta give this one some thought…
The wicked flee when none pursueth..." - Proverbs 28:1July 6, 2014 at 7:41 am #17978
In 1918, so current books say, the Self Imposed Reverse Quarantine (SIRQ) worked very, very well to keep thus-isolated populations uninfected. Several small towns in Utah, and Philadelphia PA are said to have brought it off. Philadelphia didn’t skate, but had the lowest infection rate of any big city. The Utah towns did totally escape. I live alone in my house; that’s a down-side for societal collapse and mobs looting, but I see only up-side for a pandemic. I’m set up for >6 months worth of SIRQ.
My hard choice comes when/if such pandemic CAUSES societal breakdown. I can’t help people as far away as Dallas (75-minute drive) but I’m a member of the local CERT team and would not, I think, turn down requests from it to serve the community. I might find myself supporting a medical team administering Tamiflu or even serving meals at a soup kitchen. I would be at risk.
Good news: I apparently have a strong immune system. Bad news: in 1918, that worked against a lot of people, who went into toxic shock and died from it rather than from the flu itself. If a strain of flu gets out that has a 50% morbidity rate and easily transfers person-to-person I may have to decide to give anyway, knowing that it would cost my life. Good news: brain cancer took my wife 4 years ago, and the 5 kids all live >1000 miles from me and have their own families; I won’t likely infect them.
Most of the above doesn’t apply to you. And that’s really my point: even with adequate stores and tools and skills, your choices will be your own. I applaud this “tabletop” since it will motivate some of you to make those choices now, in low-stress conditions. You will thank yourselves, later…July 6, 2014 at 8:07 am #17979
BTW: either H1N1 or H7N9 (I forget which) DID cause a pandemic wen it escaped China several years ago. Every year, seasonal flu takes the lives of ~35,000 people worldwide. I watched the weekly data from CDC during that season. The deaths from this new “virulent” strain added ~2% to the statistic on morbidity, in aggregate over that season. Had it not been for some medical tests coming back positive for it, we might never have even known…
The point is not to cease being concerned about the next one, and the next – but to not trust too much before-the-fact reporting on how bad the next one will be. Because they (particularly the hucksters of doom) don’t know. I’ve studied statistics, and watched others use statistics to tell lies. It’s said that we get a serious flu epidemic ~3 times a century, and a barn-burner ~1 time a century. By that light, we’re due almost any year for the barn-burner. Assume for a moment that random-choice laws apply. Example: you’ve been flipping a coin, and the last 5 flips have come up heads. “Well, we’re about due for a tail..” Wrong. The chances of getting a “tail” this flip are the same 50% that they were for each of the last 5 flips. Same with the chances of getting a flu barn-burner this coming flu season, albeit with different probability of “tail” – whatever it REALLY is.
We know enough about human-body biology to teach the same thing each year to elementary-school kids, but the text books on college-level biochemistry get re-written every ~2 years and nobody uses the old ones – too full of debunked information. Mainstream Physics currently thinks it’s in the age of Reductionism; mainstream Biology – and Epidemiology – is humbler, and knows better than to engage in such hubris. “Hope for the best and plan for the worst (how to – and whether to – accomplish that last part should kick off a firestorm all by itself, and is arguably the point of the OP) is OUR point.July 6, 2014 at 9:51 am #17980
PS: lest any blow off this thought exercise as irrelevant, I give you this
wherein a scientist has apparently created a strain in the laboratory, on US soil, that’s capable of doing what the OP posits. I know, I know – “it’s safe enough in the laboratory.” So were Africanized bees, until some moron janitor in Buenos Aires turned 36 queens/drones loose to the wind, and the rest is historyJuly 6, 2014 at 10:00 am #17981
For the meantime, me and mine are huddled at home playing Scrabble and re-inventorying supplies.
Exactly, I just hope I be quick enough to bug out. Maybe in some other places in the world some effort can be done to contain that thing or similar, but I doubt it gonna make some big difference.
And I found this scenario as a pretty possible.July 6, 2014 at 11:30 am #17986
This is worse than nukes, how do you know when it is safe or will it ever be safe to be near other people?July 6, 2014 at 12:14 pm #17988
LairdT makes a couple of very good points, re: the 1918 flu.
However, not to be all doomy and gloomy this fine summer morning, I will remind you all that the 1918 flu took down folks that had never even had contact with any outsiders. In Alaska, I believe, there were Native American – Eskimo – tribes that had no contact with the outside world, and many of them died of the flu. Read about where a couple tribes only had a handful – as in, less than 10 – surviving members.
Which begs the question – If they self-quarantined by default (living in the middle of nowhere), and had no contact with the outside world, how did they get the flu?
Makes me wonder about the source of the flu. It hit everywhere pretty much at the same time. A few years ago, I remember reading about a bunch of scientists who were exhuming some of the Eskimos who died of the 1918 flu. They were buried in permafrost, and their bodies are still preserved. Best cold storage ever. Probably the only existing samples of the 1918 flu will be found in their lung tissue, they reckon. Hope they can do something useful with it…
As far as Doctor Evil and his superbug… it’s evil bastards like that just think stuff up, just to see if they can do it, and then the rest of us pay the price. Just because you can do something does not mean you should do something… same with atomic and nuclear weapons, spy drones, etc…
Just a matter of time before his bug breaks quarantine or some new super-Ebola or super-Marburg comes shambling out of some ******** in Africa to wreak havoc on the world… people bash North Korea for being “isolationist”… it would be the height of irony if they had the highest survival rate during a worldwide pandemic…
The wicked flee when none pursueth..." - Proverbs 28:1July 6, 2014 at 5:21 pm #18007
The cause in Alaska may have been mosquitos. Some of them are huge and would have no problem flying from the US (or Canada) bringing the flu with them.
RobinJuly 6, 2014 at 8:18 pm #18020
It is long run between “bugs” and us, every now and then bugs are victorious.
But one day simply we gonna be overrun with some mutation, either natural or laboratory born.
We are getting smarter and smarter (or more stupid) by the inventing the new ways to bring some kind of apocalypse with pandemic.July 6, 2014 at 10:14 pm #18027
Okay here are a couple more things with this scenario:
– There are now 3 people in your neighbourhood who have become ill.
– Utilities are beginning to be effected (some rolling blackouts, limited water)
– The bigger cities have begun rioting due to lack of prompt food deliveries, the utilities not being 100%, and hospitals being extremely crowded with the ill.
Canadian Patriot. Becoming self-sufficient.July 6, 2014 at 10:26 pm #18028
If I lived in the cities or urban area I would be gone. Since I live where I do then no. There is no one else for many miles around me.
RobinJuly 6, 2014 at 10:37 pm #18030
For me it would be time to setup my primary security components.
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