March 28, 2014 at 11:10 pm #4578
Sorry no way I can park a chopper on the lawn. Seriously, I fear illness more than trauma. As society struggles, hygiene breaks down, and all the little bugs that modern medicine and technology keeps at bay are free to attack. Might want to have supplies on hand for isolation of the ill. I’m sure your wife will have a good sense of the supplies you will need.
I may have my head in the sand, but I believe we are going to have a better chance of contracting any number of communicable diseases than having a running gun battle. Imagine getting sick when there are no antibiotics to battle the infection. Pretty soon the flu becomes a sinus infection, which becomes a lung infection, and because of poor hygiene and nutrition your body is unable to fight it, and for the very same reasons, your care giver contracts the same condition. That’s what keeps me awake at night.
Your thoughts?March 31, 2014 at 12:48 am #5651
Whenever your different you get noticed. When your young chasing girls/guys that can be good, but once life becomes ‘exciting’ it is a very very bad thing.March 31, 2014 at 1:52 am #5678
My thoughts sometimes sway towards what you’re on about…
To me, it’s simple arithmetic… What do big cities have? Wealth. Wealth attracts people and in the United States, that means people from all over the world. Those people are from countries that have diseases we have either stamped out here in the US long ago, or diseases which are totally unknown in the US.
The diseases we have stamped out, we are several generations out from any natural immunity. We are as hothouse flowers. The CDC? They sort of keep track of the various creeping cruds we have… except the rarefied medicines we need to combat that exotic crud is made hundreds, if not thousands, of miles away.
Once TSHTF, those masses of people in the cities will migrate, including any Typhoid Mary’s they have. Crud we don’t even suspect exists here will spread through dense populations like wildfire. Which is a reason I really, really don’t want anything to do with refugees from anywhere. Ebola, Marburg, the various bird flu’s, swine flu, TB, polio, even the Black Death exists in the American southwest in rat populations…
A friend of mine, he used to work for the CDC in Atlanta. The CDC would catch wind of some exotic crud via the coconut telegraph from some hospital or another. A warrant would be issued for that person, and my friend would have to go track them down and escort them to the CDC, where they would be put in isolation. He said the people he escorted had sh*t that would burn me down in a week, but they were totally asymptomatic…
When things go pear shaped, disease will have a high pucker factor… I don’t harbor any Walter Mitty fantasies about coming out the other side alive and in one piece, but the idea of being taken down by some crud from the other side of the world? Just the idea pisses me off…
The wicked flee when none pursueth..." - Proverbs 28:1March 31, 2014 at 1:55 am #5679
Regions of the country make a difference as well , racial things ? absolutely , but considering that Blacks are only 17% of the US population , they will get smoked by Whites and Hispanics ,any obvious Muslims will get smoked on principle by all . Blacks will have small areas , but will not be able to expand out very well from them , in affect they will be trapped in their pocket . look at the prison system for racial models , not to sound like a nazi , but Blacks have always been considered the lowest common denominator by many races , this is unfair , BUT it is real in bad situations , in a prison , the Blacks are the ones that Get backstabbed first , by both Whites and Hispanics . Whites and hispanics may hang together , hispanics and blacks may hang together , whites and blacks may hang together ….but when **** goes down , more often than not , blacks are on their own, when all is said and done . Now expand on that to neighborhoods and regions . This will happen . The PC movement has done more to damage race relations than any factor in our history . But that is just one factor , survival is all about resources , that will be the overwhelming goal of all . Securing the basics will be top priority for everybody on the ground , I would put the racial stuff in the same category as politics , because it is , in its most instinctive and basic form . At some point and many deaths later , some rudimentary stability will be obtained . The problem with this model , is this is all assuming NOBODY is in control , no government ……………………….in the US , I cant buy into that scenario , the last one we had was about taxation and politics , it was organized , etc . I strongly feel that the next one will indeed be political as well . One thing that has bothered me about BOTH the left and the right , is both seem to be under the impression that in order to have one , you need to get rid of the other form of government ………that is only true if we are talking about Communists and Fascists , both the enemy of humanity , right or left . Socialism in itself is not Unconstitutional , the Constitution does not deal with that , its about how the government deals with the people , things it can not do , the Bill of Rights , however , Tolitarian socialism IS unconstitutional . Thats what the leftists dont understand . They think getting rid of the Constitution is an improvement ? they have a rude awakening ahead . I for one , am an independant , that means I can think for myself , As far as the governments dealing with the citizen goes , I’m a libertarian , as far as what social things we have goes , I really dont care , as long as the American people vote for it . I really dont care about much other than keeping the Constitution intact 100% restored . ……………..and this my friends , is where the politics are going to spill over to armed conflict .
just my 2centsMarch 31, 2014 at 2:35 am #5685
This person has put some thought in this article. Check out the cube.
RobinMarch 31, 2014 at 2:41 am #5702
Tolik, very interesting post.March 31, 2014 at 2:45 am #5705
I have , its too much work to decipher , thats why he fails , he also ignores several other parts of the equation , the big picture , and only focuses on income and color , the equation is very incomplete and way to clinical . Its like a nuclear physicist trying to go into marriage counseling , he also will fail .March 31, 2014 at 3:06 am #5715
I have a lot of respect for Matthew Bracken. I like his writings and agree with much of what he says. He is very common sense oriented and I appreciate that. That being said, his cw2 cube and some of his beliefs about the lines along which society will divide do not resonate with me. I believe, it may occur like he predicts in certain regions, but it is not possible in others. I admit – I may be wrong and he may be right, but I just can’t make that section of his theories match with the reality I see and the history I have studied.
However, I continue to hold him in high regard.March 31, 2014 at 3:22 am #5726
I didnt say that I didnt , it’s just that his focus is too narrow , its almost like he doesnt understand his own country , We are not Bosnians , Serbs , or Soviets , we dont have 700 years of animosities under our belt , like old europe , asia , and other areas of the world ……………..we are a different people , and will react differently , violence is violence , war is war , that is a constant , but the triggers and factions will be unique to this country . Just Sayin .
He ignores politics completely , but in a civil war situation ITS ALL ABOUT POLITICS almost 100% . I would accept his evaluation if he presented it as a model of economic collapse , and how people on the ground would react to it …………but a civil war is a much , much different animal .March 31, 2014 at 3:35 am #5733
This is a very interesting topic. One of the things that caught my eye was the race issue and rural or city location. I have worked in the cellular communications industry for the past 15+/- years. I started off on the construction side of the industry building and maintaining the tower structures. I live in Texas near the Gulf Coast and one of the jobs we had was damage assessment and repair after hurricanes. During the early years of my career most first responders long range radios were Nextel phones with the push to talk feature. If the towers were not operating neither were their radios, so we were often called in within hours of the disaster before the general public or news media were allowed in. I did not go to Louisiana during Katrina but I worked in Texas about a month later when Rita hit Houston. I also worked Houston when Ike hit. The other major storm I worked was Dolly that hit Brownsville right on the Texas/Mexican border. Rita caused a lot of flooding in costal areas and the worst traffic jam from Houston to Dallas I have ever seen. For those who don’t know that is about a 300 miles. Ike was devastating along the coast and into Houston. Dolly did a lot of damage too but the storm surge was only about 4′ and flooding mostly communities right on the coast and causing wide spread power outages. What amazed me was how people acted. Like most major cities Houston has a mixture of races but there are large areas that are predominately minority. A large number of these minority areas are on government assistance of some sort. The crime, looting, and violence was strongest in these areas. Brownville on the other hand is 99.9% Hispanic. Most of these people are relatively poor. I will be honest, when we left for Brownsville I had several guns and plenty of ammo in my truck. I had seen how people acted during Katrina. I had seen how the refugees from Katrina that came to Houston acted. I expected nothing short of the Alamo when I got to Brownsville. What I found was humbling. Yes there was some looting I’m sure but for the most part everyone was just trying to put their lives back together. Neighbors helping neighbors. We did not have any armed holdups of the fuel trucks refueling generators like we had in Houston. I was shocked. Then it hit me. The difference between these two cities was that fewer people in Brownsville were on government assistance. They had not been conditioned to a handout. So my conclusion is that the greatest threat in CW2 is not from poor minorities but from lazy, conditioned minorities.March 31, 2014 at 3:37 am #5734
There are also huge sections of the US – Mexico border where large percentages of the population is interracially married or the offspring of such marriages – for many generations. It would not be possible for those areas to break down on racial lines.March 31, 2014 at 4:11 am #5749
He ignores politics completely , but in a civil war situation ITS ALL ABOUT POLITICS almost 100% .– Tolik
This area of the country, the Appalachian Mountains here in Kentucky and Tennessee, well… most folks have heard of Bleeding Kansas, but few know that during the last Civil War, the fighting in these hills and hollers was as bad, if not worse, than in Kansas. Bushwhacking, assassinations, arson, folks flat-out disappearing forever… it was dirty, backstabbing warfare.
I see no reason why the next one won’t be the same… the racial aspect? Well… I have my personal feelings, same as anyone else, and you can’t hang a man for what he thinks. If I had to lay money on it, I’d say it would break down black vs white, black vs hispanic, white vs hispanic, EVERYONE vs the muslims. I don’t think class differences will mean so much within one’s own race. Everyone will be in the same boat, more or less. But folks will tribe up. (Halfbreeds, or bi-racials, will be automatically suspect – exactly where do their loyalties lie? In Haiti in 1804, the black Haitians genocided every white man, woman, child and infant on the island, except for the white females who agreed to have bi-racial children and breed themselves out of existence. When they were done slaughtering whites, they started chasing down the lighter skinned mulattoes.)
Sooner or later, eventually, word will get to one group or another about some alleged atrocity that was committed by the other group, and then comes payback. Or, if someone is feeling particularly Machiavellian, execute a false flag – they can goad or attack one group and make it look like a different group did it, provoking a reprisal. Your enemies tear themselves to pieces, burning up their strength, while you sit back and husband your resources… pretty soon, your group is the strongest one left. It’s happened before…
Folks will tribe up for protection, strength in numbers. Like tribes will ally with each other against “outsiders” or “others”… loners will die quickly. I really don’t see much racial diversity happening… frankly, most of the people I know are sick to death of that crap…
The wicked flee when none pursueth..." - Proverbs 28:1March 31, 2014 at 10:18 pm #5960
My understanding of his article is that the cube is more about how safe/dangerous an area will be once the reset button is hit. He was trying to give a simple way to evaluate where it will be most likely to start using a simple method that everyone understands. Again, this was my take. If we want to get very very very complicated, the only safe place is on your very own deserted island that is 100% self sufficient. If you have more than 1 person, arguments and disagreements will happen. If you have more than 1000 people you will have tribes form – like hangs out with like. The tribes will form coalitions and remove other tribes. Then the coalitions will break up and the individual tribes will fight again. It has happened since time began. It is simple for us, we are looking at what we can do now to put us in a better position when SHTF. It is a tool for reviewing your location, the same way as some want to be near a mall/school/beach/whatever. If you look at the cube as a method for selecting a location to live, it could be useful. Is there more to it? Yes! The cube is like saying you should go run to get in shape. Nothing more nothing less.
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.