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  • #33368
    Profile photo of 74
    74
    Survivalist
    rnews

    I have been reading this same warning more and more often.

    “Mr Dale, carrying out doctoral research in aerospace engineering at Bristol University, said it is only a ‘matter of time’ before an exceptionally violent solar storm is propelled towards Earth.”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2894840/Mystery-sun-s-south-pole-Nasa-reveals-huge-coronal-hole-solar-surface-winds-jet-500-miles-SECOND.html

    #33372
    Profile photo of freedom
    freedom
    Survivalist
    rnews

    Great article 74. The hole in the south pole is very big. Maybe around for five years.

    #33375
    Profile photo of MountainBiker
    MountainBiker
    Survivalist
    member10

    A question for those closer to the science here than I am. Is it only the part of Earth that happens to be facing the solar storm when it hits that is impacted or is it the entire planet? There clearly is a huge difference between the two.

    #33376
    Profile photo of freedom
    freedom
    Survivalist
    rnews

    It is hard to know since every time it is a little different. The direction changes so it may hit the north pole or north American. If it is a large solar flare then we are all in trouble. A large one will cover the Earth. The flare also travel at different speeds some can get here in hours and some will take 24 to 48 hours.

    Here are some websites that give you news daily,

    http://www.ips.gov.au/

    http://spaceweather.com/

    http://www.space.com/topics/solar-flares-space-weather-latest-news/

    http://www.solarham.net/

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/news/space_time/solar_flare/

    #33424
    Profile photo of 74
    74
    Survivalist
    rnews

    Mtb,
    Just like with light waves the and other solar radiation the side exposed to the sun will be effected most.

    I can only comment on articles I’ve read. The direction of the solar flare is the first criteria determining the effects to the earth. There have been many very strong solar flares that didn’t effect us because the radiation was not aimed directly at the earth. These should be considered near misses. Astrophysicist know eventuality a direct hit will occur. You could compare it to a bad darts player. If enough darts are thrown eventually one hits the bullseye.

    Intensity of the flare. Well giant flares are being observed every year. A big flare aimed at us is going to cause damage somewhere.

    Duration of the flare. If the flare lasts for 24 hours it would radiate the whole earth in one rotation. Anything less will effect the areas hit within the time frame of the flare with a start and finish. There is no telling where either would be, or how long a flare will last.

    These variables could or will produce mixed results.

    #33490
    Profile photo of MountainBiker
    MountainBiker
    Survivalist
    member10

    Thanks for the explanation. I have long been perplexed at the “penny wise dollar foolish” approach we have towards securing critical infrastructure against risks which we know will happen someday. Between this and the growing risk of cyberwar we have plenty of incentive to protect the grid, yet we don’t.

    #33494
    Profile photo of 74
    74
    Survivalist
    rnews

    Mtb,
    Yes very perplexing. However the grid is owned by numerous large corporations and not by the government, it could be compared to the railroads in some ways and slum lords in another. There was no profit to be made by fixing the system in the past.

    #33500
    Profile photo of MountainBiker
    MountainBiker
    Survivalist
    member10

    74, the govt. doesn’t seem to have a problem dictating all sorts of things to businesses, often at great expense relative to the problem being solved. The root of the problem is that our political and business leaders essentially share the “it can’t happen/it won’t happen” mindset that the general populous has, and so nothing gets done.

    #33503
    Profile photo of Brulen
    Brulen
    Survivalist
    member9

    <div class=”d4p-bbp-quote-title”>74 wrote:</div>Mtb,<br>
    Yes very perplexing. However the grid is owned by numerous large corporations and not by the government, it could be compared to the railroads in some ways and slum lords in another. There was no profit to be made by fixing the system in the past.

    The grid could also be compared to a large system of obsolete technology that needs to be taken down for the benefit of mankind. Hasta la Vista Baby. Once upon a time There was AT&T.

    There is no profit in preserving the lives of Millions of impoverished losers on Wall St.

    Their fun coupons are to big too believe. lol

    #33513
    Profile photo of MountainBiker
    MountainBiker
    Survivalist
    member10

    Brulen, even assuming that the Wall St. crowd is astute enough to have personal bug out properties, they really have nothing to gain by the deaths of their “lessers”. These folks live in their own world in which the mere existence of poor people is more something they know as an abstract fact than it is a part of life they experience. This is doubly so for those born to wealth, folks who were born on 3rd base that think they hit a homerun when they come across home plate. I’ve known a few of them. A general collapse will likely hit the elite real hard because they have little to no practical skills even if they have country retreats. They’ll have more wine set aside than they will rice, beans, and bullets.

    #33515
    Profile photo of undeRGRönd
    undeRGRönd
    Survivalist
    member8

    A major Earth impacting solar flare is NOT “inevitable” but it is more likely with recent solar storms. Best to be prepared for anything, and have nothing happen. But someday, some SHTF “event” may occur. Be Prepared, that’s the Boy Scout Motto!

    "ROGUE ELECTRICIAN" Hoping to be around to re-energize the New World.....

    Cogito, ergo armatus sum

    #33517
    Profile photo of 74
    74
    Survivalist
    rnews

    “Is NOT inevitable” – rgr
    And the reason you say this is because. ……?

    #33522
    Profile photo of undeRGRönd
    undeRGRönd
    Survivalist
    member8

    OK, Let’s just say the Earth is 1* of arc wide, in it’s orbit around the Sun (it is less) That would mean a Solar Flare, let’s say 10* of width @ 93,000,000 miles from the Sun would have a 1 in 36 chance of hitting Earth. Now consider that all the planets are in basically the same plane around the Sun, and that it is also (greatly exaggerated) 1* of arc wide that way… now it is 1 in 36 times 360 which is a 1 in 12,960 chance, but we “rounded up” in every case, so let’s just say it’s off by a factor of 10 now. almost a 1 in 130,000 chance of any solar flare impacting the Earth. And wasn’t this Solar Storm on the Sun’s SOUTH POLE? That means it is shooting as far away from the Solar Plane of planets as much as possible. That flare has Zero Chance of hitting Earth…

    Mr Dale (not DR. Dale) says these types of events are not just a threat, but inevitable.
    Nasa scientists have predicted that the Earth is in the path of a Carrington-level event every 150 years on average.
    This means that we are currently five years overdue – and that the likelihood of one occurring in the next decade is as high as 12 per cent.

    12% is one in 8 over the next 10 years. But it is NASA’s JOB to warn of these possibilities, and their FUNDING depends on threat levels, if they found zero threat levels, they would be less likely to be funded. Not throwing stones at NASA, but it is in their best interest (and ours, IMO) if they get us a tad bit “more ready” and nothing happens, as opposed to “every thing is hunkey-dorey” then disaster strikes! Earth is a relatively small target. Take your “bad darts player”, spin him around blindfolded, then let him throw. That is more like what we are dealing with, but in all 3 axis of space. A flare can go in ANY Direction, and not always towards Earth.

    "ROGUE ELECTRICIAN" Hoping to be around to re-energize the New World.....

    Cogito, ergo armatus sum

    #33523
    Profile photo of 74
    74
    Survivalist
    rnews

    RGR,
    If the flares produced narrow streams of energy I think some of your theory would apply. A small target is easy to hit with a broad brush.

    #33525
    Profile photo of undeRGRönd
    undeRGRönd
    Survivalist
    member8

    Yes, easier. I am still advocating to be prepared, but the numbers tell a slightly different story.
    I think NASA is doing a good job, 12% is much higher than most astronomical events.
    A killer asteroid is lots less likely, but much more devastating.

    What I think is happening here is that their “new toy” is showing them just how violent the Sun really is, and once they have more data, they will understand much better how this works. We cannot prevent anything in the astronomical scale, all we can do is prepare. Better to “over-prep” and be ready for an event that does not occur, than to be unprepared for one that does hit.

    "ROGUE ELECTRICIAN" Hoping to be around to re-energize the New World.....

    Cogito, ergo armatus sum

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