September 5, 2017 at 7:41 pm #52219
[Well, this post disappeared after I made a slight edit. Obviously the “management” hasn’t addressed the disappearing posts problem. Let’s see if allows a new topic with essentially the same wording. If this shows up twice eventually, please understand that as of now it is completely disappeared from the Forum, even after closing my browser, deleting all cookies, etc. So here goes attempt #2.]
First, Harvey. It strikes me that as a matter of simple logic we should be studying everything we can about the actual conditions encountered by people in and around the 4th largest city in the United States. And we should KEEP watching and studying. Check their local stations and newspapers, not the national news. See what the people are experiencing. What happens with crime going forward? How long does it take for houses to even begin to be re-constructed, given a finite number of contractors, vs 10s of thousands of homes destroyed or functionally destroyed? What supplies can’t people get? What happens with gas supplies over time? What happens to prices, despite anti-gouging statements by government officials? What are hospitals going to be experiencing both now and into the future in terms of diseases, conditions, etc.? Watch what happens to insurance companies – I just heard a report that ½ MILLION cars are flooded (i.e. junk)? All these things and more will tell us more about what WILL happen in the United States with major disruptions, whether nature-made or man-made. This is basic prepping education. Selco has been trying to teach this – study what happened from those that were there, learn from it, and be as close to ready to cope with it as possible if/when it comes.
Now on to what we can already learn from Irma (which hasn’t harmed a single person yet, to my knowledge).
At this moment, Irma is still well out in the Atlantic. But it’s already at 185mph with hurricane force winds wider than the entire Florida peninsula. And the current forecast is for it to come right up through or on either coast of Florida. If the forecast (and current strength) holds, Houston and the American southeast will at least bring the United States down on one knee, maybe both. Tax reform? Obamacare? Forget ANY of all that “routine” stuff. Government – already stretched beyond comprehensible bounds – could finally break. And Antifa (and any other communist fronts) will be in a great position to take advantage of much of the problems.
But that starts by this weekend – not quite yet. We shall see (and pray for a miracle). Still – watch and learn:
What’s important right now about Irma (other than the obvious monstrosity it is becoming) is the announcement by the U.S. Virgin Islands governor: “U.S. Virgin Islands Gov. Kenneth Mapp signed an emergency order allowing the seizure of private guns, ammunition, explosives and property the National Guard may need to respond to Hurricane Irma.”
Say What?!? A less reasonable person might actually think this is a trial balloon to see just what – if anything – will be the general reaction when something like this is actually implemented. After all, they got away with a lesser-version of it in New Orleans 12 years ago. And the U.S. Virgin Islands isn’t “really” the United States, now is it? One might expect that this won’t even hit the mainstream news. But then it will only be the less reasonable people that would even notice, let alone blink at this story – only the conspiracy nuts, and they shouldn’t be allowed to have guns anyway. So, only those that are less reasonable need to monitor this development. ABC News, by the way, only reported that Governor Mapp said, “This is not an opportunity to go outside and try to have fun with a hurricane. It’s not time to get on a surfboard.” — They made no mention of his executive order to the AG and by extension the National Guard. That order went into effect at 12:01 a.m. this morning (5 September 2017). In it, the Adjutant General is “directed to seize arms, ammunition, explosives, incendiary material, and any other property” needed to “maintain or restore public order” in the Territory. It doesn’t say the AG is “authorized if needed,” or that she “might” or “could” take such action. It says the AG is “directed” using the present tense (i.e. starting at midnight last night).
But none of that could possibly happen in the 50 “real” states. Only less reasonable people should be concerned….September 6, 2017 at 4:24 am #52226
You henceforth would be under martial law. Any food or fuel necessary is theirs. Guns maybe. Cops etc get killed trying to seize guns, so maybe a little more negotiable. But then they may think its iraq and that would be a big mistake.
September 6, 2017 at 11:22 am #52227
- This reply was modified 2 years, 8 months ago by Brulen.
Ha, the US ain’t some tin pot banana republic, where the .MIL does the policing.
These are private citizens and a confiscation order would cause a national case of blue flu at best.
Worst case? The piles of badges I know would be laying there. Why worse? What happens when 800,000 cops don’t show up for work? Not the anarchists wet dream, but reality.
Like cops or not, what happens when the cops stay home?
Are the criminals going to stay home?
Do you think that the EMTs and firefighters are going to roll out without LE? In parts of the country they are already getting shot at.
What happens when these guys don’t show either?
There’s your easy path to that martial law thing everyone is paranoid about. Confiscation for “the public good”, suspension of civil rights, with nothing between you and the .MIL thugs.
Melodramatic? Think about it for real and get back to me.
To quote a gangbanger, ” it’s F-in Christmas time”.
The powers that be should know this, but then we also have legislators like SJ Lee and M Waters so it could get very interesting very quickly.
At that point, I feel that much of their constituents would cease to be voting ever again. No great loss.
As I recall, the USVI still doesn’t have a constitution. The last convention was @2010.
September 6, 2017 at 12:17 pm #52232
- This reply was modified 2 years, 8 months ago by Whirlibird.
At least all the stores have been cleaned out beforehand. Neither the politicians or looters will find easy pickings there. Its the expectation of everyones lifestyle being reduced to existence level. On tv i saw Ted Cruz doing a lot of mingling during Harvey. After the storm without the power to hand out money the politicians are about as useless as flotsam. Really there is no money until the national debt limit gets increased in a few weeks or months. One reporter called it the pinwheel effect. So many people and things being afected that the storm is everywhere. Irma meaning – universal.September 6, 2017 at 5:26 pm #52234
Yes. And the FEMA disaster fund is down to its last $Billion as of today. Plus, the insurance companies haven’t even hardly begun to start paying out – not enough time for adjusters, etc., to set damages. What happens to the markets AFTER Irma has come and gone, and there are two monumental disasters to pay out by insurance companies, and they have to start selling some of their reserves to do it (i.e. stocks and bonds)? The same thing that happens in ANY market – when there is large scale selling, prices go down. Oh wait! The market took a 234 point drop yesterday. As Paul Harvey used to say, “Stand by, for NEWS!” Not only is it the pinwheel effect, it will be a huge domino effect around the world (note: this video shows far more than just the opening screen shot photo).September 8, 2017 at 5:36 am #52248
Howdy folks. It’s been a looong time. Hope everyone has been well. I saw this post and being that I live in the Houston area I figured I could answer some of GS’s questions. To say the devastation is unbelievable would be an understatement. I have never seen water levels like this in the 25 years I have lived here. That being said I have also been blown away by how everyone is handling it. It is almost as if no one batted an eye and just rolled up their sleeves and started doing what had to be done. It has been incredibly humbling to see the amount of help pouring in from all over the nation. There were so many people that showed up with boats (both local and out of state) to help rescue people that many were turned away. The National Guard and first responders from all over the nation showed up. We live a few miles from a reserves/private airport and the stream of helicopters flying over the house lasted for days. After 3 days of being cooped up in the house(it was still raining) the family and I loaded up and started helping at shelters. I was a little apprehensive about it and wasn’t sure it was a good idea to take the family along.We delivered loads of donated supplies from a distribution center to shelters in the area. I haven’t ventured into shelters in the past due to what I saw during Katrina. I had visions of people crammed like cattle into terrible facilities. I expected mayhem and chaos. I was mistaken. There was chaos but it wasn’t bad considering the situation. Hasty shelters were being opened up everywhere; churches, schools, convention centers, businesses, any place that was big enough to hold numbers and wasn’t in immediate danger of flooding. Many were just people willing to help neighbors out. Now conditions may have deteriorated some over the following days but I don’t know as we started helping people in neighborhoods around us demo their houses. I have not seen any local reports of deplorable conditions in the shelters. Red Cross and other agencies showed up but a lot of people just did it on their own. The agencies brought some supplies but I think the bulk of it was donations. I’M TALKING MOUNTAINS OF DONATIONS! Clothes were starting to get turned away within 4 days. Within two days volunteer signups at organized shelters were full a week out. There were literally long lines of people waiting to signup to volunteer. I have never seen such an outpouring of generosity. It has truly made me proud of my community and country. The finances over the coming months will be interesting. A state of emergency was declared prior to the storms impact. Many people have donated money and raised money for relief efforts. One of the Houston Texans football players started a fundraiser by donating a million dollars of his own money to kick it off. Last I heard donations were at over 20 million. Countless other people and groups are raising money to help out. I honestly think there will be more donated than the government actually contributes( and actually makes it to relief efforts). Contractors for repairs will not be an issue. I have seen tons of caravans of all types of contractors rolling down the highways. Companies are flooding in from everywhere to get set up for the rebuild. It will take a long time to fix everything but if you are willing to work there will be no shortage of jobs or employers for a while. The saddest part about all of this(other than the loss of life and homes) is that it is estimated that 85% of the estimated 100,000 homes that were affected did not have flood insurance. What will be very interesting to see is what deals get made between insurance companies and lending institutions. I imagine there will be people that just pack up and walk away from homes that are not covered under insurance and will let the banks have them back. That could have major effects nation wide. Time will tell.
Gas ran short pretty fast. There is no shortage of fuel but delivery was impossible for a few days due to water levels and road conditions after the water went down. Prices have jumped about 60 cents a gallon around me. Supply is coming back but I am curious to see if greed kicks in and prices stay up. I have no idea what the estimates are on vehicles that were submerged but buying a used car over the next 6 months to a year is going to be risky business, even if you don’t live in Texas. They will get repaired and spread out to auctions across the country. If you are in the market for a used car I would highly suggest doing some research on ways to tell if a car has been flooded. A salvage title will be your first give away as once a car is totaled by an insurance company it is given a salvage title. Check inside body panels or in tire and jack compartments for signs of water marks or pooling water. These areas are often overlooked when cleaning cars up. I would also be willing to bet there will be some rate hikes for insurance rates nation wide with the big name insurance companies. They gotta cover their losses somehow.September 8, 2017 at 5:51 am #52249
Oh I forgot to mention we didn’t get any water in our house. Thank God!September 8, 2017 at 9:38 am #52250
Matt76, what an uplifting post! Thank you, and thank goodness you and your family are OK. What an incredible contrast in attitude (and result) compared to Katrina. Maybe we really should consider moving to TX. Texans should be very proud. It sounds as if when the attention to Texas fades due to both time and whatever comes of Irma (and Jose?), Texans will be still hanging in there making things work for themselves, and likely come out even stronger and more of an example to the rest of the nation. Bravo!September 8, 2017 at 1:52 pm #52252
Thanks Matt for sharing that. It was uplifting to hear. Folks in the Houston area and in Texas as a whole should be proud. Tough times are always the measure of a person and a community and it seems folks there have passed the test.
Five years ago when Tropical Storm Irene hit Vermont the flooding and sheer number of washed out bridges and roads isolated many areas. The response was such that I too was very proud of where I live. Almost the entire State is mountainous which between the terrain and our being lightly populated means there often is only a single road to get from Point A to Point B making it easy for an area to get isolated. In my area there were volunteers using their ATV’s to come into town to pick up prescriptions or get other vital supplies (oxygen etc) to the elderly and the most vulnerable. People with construction type equipment in isolated communities went to work repairing roads in their areas without being paid or even getting permission. In one community the locals quickly cut a half mile path through the woods so that kids could get to where a school bus could pick them up. They even put bark mulch down so that the kids wouldn’t get muddy and organized guards along the way to make sure little kids didn’t go off the path and get lost. In another community locals quickly built a foot bridge over a small river where the bridge had been washed away and the homeowners adjacent to it allowed people to park on their lawn, walk across the foot bridge, and then get into a car parked on someone’s lawn on the other side. The alternative was a 50 mile loop on back roads to get to the other side, so people with two cars made the trip once to get a car on the other side. In my area locals cooked food and brought it to where National Guard troops doing bridge repair were being housed in a sports facility. The State itself was superb in how they approached getting temporary bridges up fast and fixing roads fast so as to make them usable. By that I mean filling in the void and making it gravel to allow vehicles to pass, then after roads had that basic fix they came back to pave the travel lanes, and then after those were done they came back to fix the shoulders, put in guardrails again etc. Basically 80% solutions were put in place fast.
I can’t imagine our ever getting rain measured in feet given the mountainous terrain amplifies the effect as all that water cascades into the valleys, most of which have little to no flood plain relative to the area being drained. The rainfall in Texas staggers the imagination for folks up here.September 9, 2017 at 3:52 am #52272
Ive heard somewhere that there was 8 billion budgeted for Houston. My inflationary expectations are rising. President Trump has apparently agreed to a no limit national debt with the democrats. Its rather hard i would think to have a budget fight in the middle of an epic disaster. Whatever the original budget plan was its obviously been altered by Irma. if US corps dont start putting their foreign profits back into the US now the shtf from both sides of the aisle. Imagine there could be agreement on something. Its almost unimaginable. Maybe great disasters do bring people together.September 9, 2017 at 4:14 am #52273
My inflationary expectations are rising.
Probably a good bet then to start stocking up on gold and/or silver. And for anyone wanting to look down the road at their options for cashing out of any silver or gold positions, there are still a handful of opportunities to legally sell your gold or silver at any recognized business such as a coin shop, without the requirement for a 1099B being created (the customer is still required by the IRS to report any gain of course). Junk silver is subject to 1099Bs in excess of $1000 FACE value, but Silver Eagles (minted as $1.00 coins) are NOT subject to any reporting requirements unless the coin or pawn shop locally requires verification of seller for crime tracking. It was created after the applicable law was written, so it was never included in the definition of what triggers a 1099B There is a handful of gold offerings as well that are not subject to 1099B reporting requirements to IRS.
Not tryin’ to avoid taxes or cheat the gummint in any way – just providing the options that Congress created.September 9, 2017 at 5:00 am #52276
GS I was thinking more like a 15% increase in prices next year. Things like gold and silver are so complicated people dont sell them, Greshams law.. G&S just get passed on to kids like rings and heirlooms. Making money isnt the idea. Its leaving an inheritance that cant be instantly converted into cash for cars college or other toys aka sex drugs and rocknroll. They will construct their own financial mind palace someday. They might as well have someplace to start. Bring sanity back to america. Convince your kids owning things is better than renting. Im an ayn rand convert. I believe in owning things that are worth owning.September 9, 2017 at 3:32 pm #52277
Hate to be callus , but just like people who live in New Orleans . Get hit once , shame on nature , get hit twice , shame on you for staying . MOVE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and if I was an insurance company , I would quit paying for people to continue to stay there , waiting for another hit .September 9, 2017 at 4:04 pm #52280
Someone told me that a major insurance company has stopped issuing homeowners’ policies in Florida. I haven’t verified that, though I’d be surprised if it’s quite as black-and-white as that. I certainly would favor treating things like hurricanes the same way they do with earthquake insurance – the higher the risk, the higher the premiums, and much higher deductibles for anything earthquake related. Fire? Burglary? No problem – cover ‘em the same way as everybody else. But like Tolik, if someone chooses to live in a high earthquake or hurricane risk zone, let them carry the burden of the additional premium. That’s only fair. Ooops. Fair? That doesn’t have any relevance anymore….September 9, 2017 at 5:35 pm #52284
Agreed. You wanna live in mother natures path of occasional temper tantrums, you foot the bill.
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