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  • #46706
    Profile photo of Roadracer
    Roadracer
    Survivalist
    member7

    Just read that last week there was not one freighter in the South China Sea carrying raw materials to China. I can not believe that the world’s largest exporter did not need any raw materials. Is this the first indication that the world economy is grinding to a halt?

    The Baltic Dry Index keeps falling to record lows. Even if you factor in a glut of ships, that can not bode well for the world’s economy. Yet our media continues to crow about the growing economy. The stock market has had the worst start in memory for the beginning of the year, and all we hear is there is not to worry about. A sure sign we should be worried.

    #46709
    Profile photo of freedom
    freedom
    Survivalist
    rnews

    Roadracer, China will collapse first, just my opinion. I have pointed this out before. The Chinese depend on export to all the world but the world is not buying there products like before. Europe is in trouble and so are we. The Baltic Dry Index is the first sign of what is happening to China’s economy. 2015 Dow stock market was down about 3% and 2016 is the worst start EVER!!! Never has a year started this bad. The sign is everywhere. The other sign is Oil prices word wide. China is cut there oil purchases. I believe Chins has closed there markets many time before they were to collapse. They also have put billions into there stock market to keep it from collapsing just like we did since 2008. How long will all this hold up who knows but it is only running because they are all printing money and holding up the economies from collapsing. They are buying time to get ready for what is coming.

    #46714
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    Just read that last week there was not one freighter in the South China Sea carrying raw materials to China. I can not believe that the world’s largest exporter did not need any raw materials. Is this the first indication that the world economy is grinding to a halt?

    Right on target Roadracer. I had to go back and search for it, but I remembered seeing a somewhat similar indicator a few months ago (turned out it was back in September 2015) from a Casey Research analyst:

    The world economy appears to be stalling…

    Yesterday, we got news that South Korea’s exports dropped 14.7% since last August…their largest decline since the financial crisis. It’s far worse than the 5.9% drop economists were expecting.

    South Korea’s exports are important because they’re considered a “canary in the coalmine” for the global economy. South Korea is a major exporter to the largest economies in the world including China, the US, and Japan. South Korea also releases its export numbers much earlier than other major countries. That’s why a bad reading for South Korean exports is often the first sign that the global economy is in trouble.

    Personally, I’m convinced that everything is so incredibly manipulated that we may not ever get a chance to unravel it in a controlled manner. Anyone that’s ever gone fishing with a spinning reel knows that some backlashes can be carefully and painstakingly “undone,” before eventually getting back to fishing. But sometimes the mess is so bad that all of it has to just be cut away from the reel, and an entirely new reel of line wound on. I think we’re in for a complete cutting away of the economy – world wide – before we can ever go back to “fishing.”

    One of the most absurd things that extremely few people realize is that the Federal Reserve has “bought” up massive amounts of US debt. Thus, the US balance sheet doesn’t look nearly as bad as it really is, despite being as horribly bad as it does look anyway (if anyone bothers to look). Where does the Fed get the money to “buy” up Government debt (not even touching the issues involved with a non-government agency literally controlling the US economy, and largely even the world’s economies)? An in depth review of the free area on John Williams’ Shadow Stats web sight is very instructive in this regard, where he shows clear evidence of the manipulation of the economy through changing definitions, ignoring of previously used measures, and even outright lying.

    Gold should be going through the roof if historical “logic” and trends were in play here, simply based on the extreme risk to capital in worthless paper economies, grossly overpriced stocks, worthless bond issues, etc. Gold has always been the “insurance” against extreme risk – yet it is relatively languishing, compared to the real risks out there today. But the general population isn’t even seeing these kinds of issues discussed on the “news” at 6pm, or in their morning papers. They may notice that soup cans are higher priced and smaller sized, or that gallons of ice cream are only 3 quarts these days and cost far more than the old gallon boxes did, etc. The subtle signs of stress are there, and everybody knows they’re paying more for healthcare, for example. But those are the issues that are being focused on for political purposes, in order to keep the ruling class in power (regardless of which label they wear), and almost no one sees the real macro issues such as you point out. Good post.

    #46727
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    Also, watch oil and the $US. Oil topped out at $145 back in July 2008, has been up and down, but plummeted twice since then – once right after that 2008 top, and again in mid-2014 from a high of about $107 to a current price under $30. We haven’t been under $30 since the beginning of 2004, and we’ve never looked back since it had its first huge spike above $10 in 1974. Considering inflated dollars, this is a VERY interesting time, with no bottom in sight near term.

    http://www.fedprimerate.com/nymex-crude-oil-price-history-chart.htm

    As for the $US, while the current index figure of almost 100 seems high right now, that’s only relative. The all time high was 164 back in 1985, and the all time low was only 8 years ago at 71. What IS particularly noteworthy though, is how we’re doing in relation to other currencies – we’re extremely strong! It’s only been about two years ago that the $Canadian was running stronger than the $US, and only three years ago for the $Australian. Yes, they’ve had their own issues that have severely weakened their currencies against the $US, but except for the few that have been largely pegged to the $US, most all other intermediate to major currencies are in the same boat against the $US today. We are the strongest currency. That’s scary! The Ruble has done nothing but generally decline since 2006, and has absolutely tanked against the $US in the past two years. The Yuan was in a steep gain, generally, against the $US since 2006, unlike the Ruble, but has suddenly started a very sharp decline against the dollar in the past two years.

    http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/index.html?currency=cny&timePeriod=10y&flag=exchangeRate&otherChart=no

    Another interesting figure to watch is the Prime Rate. It’s currently at 3.5%, just up from 3.25% starting 16 Dec 2015. It hasn’t been at 3.25% before that since 1955, and hasn’t been at 3.5% since the later 1950s. Going back to 1966 (the earliest I could find), the Fed funds target rate has never been below the mid- to upper-1% range (we’re currently at 0.25%).

    Some things seem to make sense, but the ones that would most seem to indicate that the US is in strong shape, simply don’t hold up under scrutiny – yet the media only reports a “strong dollar,” a temporary correction in the stock market after an historic run-up, yada, yada. And gold says everything is just fine all over the world. I’m actually surprised gold hasn’t been pushed below $1000 just to shake out all but the most hard core skeptics – just to “prove” that we’re in good shape. Count me in with the most hard core skeptics, as I adjust my tin foil hat to better receive signals.

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