September 12, 2014 at 11:53 pm #24763
WOW! Here is what they are saying “Canadian researchers say the strain of Ebola afflicting West Africa can be transmitted between humans by breathing, opening up the possibility of the virus going airborne. Suspected cases of airborne infection have already been reported in monkeys in laboratories.”
This is what 74 and I have been posting for weeks here. I think they are not tell us everything. This Ebola virus maybe airborne already.September 13, 2014 at 12:18 am #24765
An interesting research paper published in “PLOS Currents: Outbreaks” on Ebola spread:
Not as sensational or politically correct as news media, aimed at medical epidemiologists and public health professionals. Gets pretty technical, but still readable for most.
A lot of good factual data on previous and current Ebola outbreaks.
They forecast it will spread internationally with US & UK risk moderate.
PLOS Currents: Outbreaks is an Open Access publication channel for the rapid communication of new research results. PLOS Currents: Outbreaks is a way to share peer-reviewed results and ideas immediately while ensuring that they will be permanently archived and citable.September 13, 2014 at 12:52 am #24767
If it goes airborne we’ll know it quickly enough in that the growth rate will be truly exponential. We’re not there yet, but the more it spreads in Africa, the greater the chances are.September 13, 2014 at 2:31 am #24770
It could be airborne now. The gestation period is pretty long so it doesn’t look like it is spreading really fast. If you consider that Patrick Sawyer infected 21 people including the passenger next to him on the plane, that is a high rate of infection.September 13, 2014 at 2:36 am #24771
I have been watching this (and Mers). I read once that a virus/disease that has the potential to become pandemic, like the spanish flu is one where health care workers are getting it in large cases. I have always remembered that. Here are links to two blogs I check in on about such things.
Both are factual and with any opinion they have clearly defined as theirs not the official statements.
I am not comfortable with Ebola, I really dont like it BUT I am well aware I am not a virologist or indeed anyone even remotely knowledgeable in this area so my gut feeling means diddlysquat to all but me (and my poor husband who hears the updates almost daily ).
I didnt see the links after posting. Sorry I am learning as I go.September 13, 2014 at 2:54 am #24773
Obama administration’s decision to enlist the Defense Department in responding to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
Now I think they are not telling us the real reason why they want to send the Defense Department, Why not more of the CDC? Something doesn’t sound right.
Concerns over enlisting DOD in Ebola responseSeptember 13, 2014 at 3:43 am #24774
I think they are a lot more worried about it than they say. If I continues I think the chances it will become airborne are higher and higher, I think they are preparing for that behind the scenes. Or at least I hope they are. I am.September 13, 2014 at 5:06 pm #24775
Viruses by their very nature are constantly mutating. If this strain becomes airborne it’s going to take the effort of everyone to help fight it. Here in the US we have great medical care, and our population is generally healthier than a lot of places in the world. I suspect if it spreads here, we will be able to fight it, but at what cost in human life. If read several articles that talk about population reset. Several seem to think that one is overdue. They make no guess as to how, but that it is inevitable.
Has anyone in their research come across any unbiased estimates of the effect on population if this does become a pandemic. The initial article defines the risk as moderate. Seems like stocking up on some isolation materials seems prudent.September 14, 2014 at 12:48 am #24780
I don’t think anyone is in a position to do any kind of realistic estimate at this time. Part of the problem is that the WHO and CDC are run by political appointees, even if they are medical professionals by trade, and economic considerations trump public health considerations every time. Thus in the current phase we are in the WHO and CDC are going to minimize risks so as to avoid panic. After 9/11, Katrina, and Sandy, the official line is still for people to have 3 to 5 days supplies on hand. Either they have amnesia or they have a complete failure of imagination. Or politics is behind it. If too many people were prepared to shelter in place, and then did it, the economy would shut down. The economic elite does not want to risk that. If the govt. actually told us what they thought was going to happen, and it was a more dire forecast than what we have seen to date, then the public would be demanding to know what govt. is going to do about it. Even our world class health system would collapse beyond a certain threshold of ebola patients. I don’t know what that number is but it is likely a fraction of the number of sick people we’d see if ebola goes airborne and is highly infectious.
Hopefully the govt.is stockpiling as much as they can behind the scenes.September 14, 2014 at 1:28 am #24781
MountainBiker, if the government is stockpiling anything it will not be for the people, it will be for them. They will not tell the public till it is infected many to the point that the news media would have no way to hide the truth and have to tell the people. By this time it will be to late to stock up. One of the first things to go will be masks and gloves so start stocking up. Remember they do not go bad so it is not money wasted.September 14, 2014 at 8:43 am #24783
All I’m going to say is Just another excuse to invade a country. And that I do not want to be in Africa during summer wearing a plastic suit !
It depends on the amount of people traveling back and forth to the country with the problem. The risk would have been zero to none if the international world weren’t so much in a race to pocket African countries.September 14, 2014 at 8:51 am #24784
Mountainbiker, that threshold in our “world class health system” is much slimmer than you think. The hospital I work at does not have the capacity to care for ebola patients period. We do not have proper containment and waste disposal to make certain we do not spread the disease, nor do we have any meaningful supply of PPE capable of handling anything this contagious. Me and my coworkers would be the first victims followed by anyone we care for after patient zero. Maybe the big city hospitals have better containment, but even they wouldn’t be able to handle more than a handful of people at a time. Needless to say, but having to tiptoe around ebola while still dealing with all the normal heart attacks and strokes that we get would increase the mortality rate for everyone. The capabilities of the healthcare system would quickly be surpassed by an influx of fear and paranoia coupled with a “me first” attitude if the public caught the slightest hint that ebola was in the hood and spreading.
Then add in staff staying at home to quarantine with loved ones and you get a big empty building with a lot of sick people in it and a lot of angry people outside of it, all demanding care and an extra pillow.
By the way peeps, the question “Have you been outside the US in the past six months?” was added to our ED triage form set two weeks ago.September 14, 2014 at 10:17 am #24786
“By the way peeps, the question “Have you been outside the US in the past six months?” was added to our ED triage form set two weeks ago.” Broadside
Past six months is a stretch.
Drs first question with consultation with flu like, headache symptoms Have you been out of Gauteng in the last two weeks? Mpumalanga, North West and Limpopo being Malaria areas in South Africa. What would happen if the mosquito’s start feasting on Ebola patients?September 14, 2014 at 11:17 am #24788
The staff of every doctor’s office is at risk because they are dealing colds and flue all the time.September 14, 2014 at 12:26 pm #24791
Broadside, I am in complete agreement. No country is prepared for a high CAR/CFR (case acquisition rate/case fatality rate) pandemic. That the folks at the CDC go on saying it can’t happen here is arrogant, and many will pay the price if ebola goes airborne.
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