October 23, 2014 at 5:13 am #27610
How do you think it will all go down when SHTF?
auribus teneo lupumOctober 23, 2014 at 11:35 am #27614
Looking into the future I’d predict a world wide financial collapse caused by the spread of ebola in about 2 years. The population in Western Afrika will become more desperate and even the poorest individuals will try to escape death but bring it with them to other parts of the world. After spreading to high density populations like India, China, Mexico & Middle Eastern countries ebola will be unstoppable.
As you can see from the problems of containment in the US, medical systems will not be able to prevent the spread. After it is wide spread hospitals will not be able to treat other illnesses. In places where there are no human rights people with ebola like symptoms will be executed.
International commerce will cease to exist and local commerce will be negligible.October 23, 2014 at 12:13 pm #27623
There are a number of ways that the S can HTF but it seems to me that a common theme would be that the economy collapses in conjunction with pretty much any of them. The economy could tank on a standalone basis too but it could come about from a major ebola or flu pandemic, from anything that brings down the grid for more than a day or so (cyberwar, terrorism, or some conventional mechanism of what would be WWIII). Looking at the drought out West reminds me that it is also possible that mother nature could cause stresses enough (public water supplies going dry, crop failures etc) to tip the economy.
The world has been in a slow decline for years which allows for adjustments that keep the music playing so to speak. TPTB have been real good at that. It’ll take a sudden jolt to bring it down I think. When it happens it will happen fast. This is why we need to be concerned as to what magnitude event can ISIS or one of the others bring about.October 23, 2014 at 3:18 pm #27630
Economic collapse is on my front burner. Discounting the economists that assert nothing bad can happen, most economists are concerned with a single black swan event that will trigger a collapse. While our economy has gone gradually down, a single event could bring a major drop. (Many are concerned that the EU economies are much weaker than we are lead to believe.) It also appears that this will not be limited to the US, but be a major global reset.
We have been blessed to live in the time we are in, but I fear for my grandchildren. Probably ever grandparent in history could have written that sentence. WWI, the great depression, WWII, and the Cold War, had our parents concerned, I wonder if that’s where we are at now.October 23, 2014 at 3:59 pm #27634
None of us can predict the future… It is unmade and unknown. It seems to be the human condition that we want to pull out our throwing bones, runes, tarot cards, astrology or go to the Oracle to get some certainty about the world.
Roadracer, you are right that the turning points in history are what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls black swan events. He thinks, one cannot predict these events, even though many will try to take the credit afterwards! (Also, the human condition.)
All we can do is focus on our little lives and do the things that are needful. For most of us that is on a household level. We can only do so much. I would suggest focusing on activities a person has total control over, first. Don’t be distracted by things that are totally out of your control. If you have a God, leave those big things to Him. If you don’t have a God, just accept the unknown and the unknowable… but know you have the personal power to make your life into the vision of your dreams.October 23, 2014 at 4:23 pm #27643
Analysis of current conditions and making projection of future events based on facts is not seeing into the future, or making prophetic perdictions. So I think we can make some fairly accurate estimates of where we are headed.
Also their are people that have dreams that come true and have other insights, so I would not say the future is totally unknown.October 23, 2014 at 9:55 pm #27655
Economical collapse. They will find a way, EMP, Ebola, cyber attack, or the end of the dollar.October 23, 2014 at 10:04 pm #27657
Ebola is a black swan event. Until there is a vaccine this will spread continuously. I’m going to work on the lit-up part starting now; Weyerbacher Merry Monks Belgian Style Ale,9.3% alc.October 24, 2014 at 6:26 pm #27710
74, what I was clumsily trying to say, was that we only have so much life energy. If we take that life energy and focus on the things we have total control over, we will make progress in our lives. We can create the lives we dream of having. If we take our energy and focus on things we do not have control over, we will be stressed, anxious, ineffective and powerless. The winds of change will just bat us around.
I have been an entrepreneur my whole working life. I spend a large fraction of my time analyzing the current situation, making projections about the future, and evaluating my assumptions afterwards. It’s fun… but also humbling. In many ways, I can see into the future, but the really earth shattering events in my life — those life turning events — are unpredictable.
Black swan events in a person’s life are like meeting your life partner — or not finding a partner in life. It could be an illness in the family. It could be a birth of a child. It could be a flood, fire or other local disaster that destroys you private property. It could be an untimely death of a family member. It could be a change in government regulations that destroys or outlaws your business. It could be being forced to go to war… or having a loved one being forced to go to war. It could be being forced out of your country of birth by war or disease. These are all things outside of our control. We can plan for the more common events in life, like having a will or insurance, but many things in life are just out of our control.
If we want to prepare, we have to focus on the things we have control over and let go of the rest.October 24, 2014 at 6:56 pm #27714
No problem, you’re preaching (only figuratively) to the choir. On the other hand I can’t ignore events that may have significant impact on me even if I can only control my one acre plot. I can’t control ebola but ebola can’t control me
BTW your examples are not really black swan events. Black Swan events are things that have not happened before and therefore are unpredictable. He uses the term black swan because no one knew black swans existed. All swans were white. If you had a child and never had sex that would be a black swan event; and it was. Or both you and your mate are of the same race and you had a baby of another race. That would not be predictable to you. (I bet your mate would be mad though).October 25, 2014 at 2:39 am #27730
74 – nice choice of libations!
C – I totally get what you’re saying. I think that’s kind of why I started this thread, hoping we could infuse a little humor into our regular discussions.
I’m going with aliens. Wookies to be exact. OoO
74 – as you’re the one currently getting lit, it’s your turn to throw out the next question.
auribus teneo lupum
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