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  • #46997
    Profile photo of L Tecolote
    L Tecolote
    Survivalist
    member8
    #46998
    Profile photo of 74
    74
    Survivalist
    rnews

    Thanks LT,
    More reinforcement of my own belief. I do think there could be an event though. When the EBT cards don’t work for a few days or weeks, it will trigger riots. I think it’s just a matter of time before some glitch, or cyber attack invalidates the system. It did happen for a few hours last summer and Walmarts gave food and clothing away free to prevent riots. The stores were cleaned out in hours.

    #46999
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    One of the many very solid links in that article (solid in that they quoted top level people IN the system), yielded the following piece from the former head of the Bank of International Settlements, William White:

    “The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up. Emerging markets were part of the solution after the Lehman crisis. Now they are part of the problem, too.

    Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief. It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something.”

    “This will be uncomfortable for a lot of people?!?!?” Yeah, about as uncomfortable as an unanesthetized root canal! What La-la Land are these masters of the world living in?

    And as one comment said after one of the other linked articles, “I am truly surprised no one gets its importance….or does not care.” Personally, I’m not surprised – just amazed that such is the case. The analogy in the article was spot on:

    I am often reminded of that woman in Anchorage, Alaska who jumped an enclosure fence at the zoo to get a closer picture of Binky the polar bear. These people have been made so inept when it comes to identifying threats that they will continue arguing with you as the animal takes a football-sized bite out of their meaty thigh.

    Great article, Tec – thanks. I particularly appreciated all the links to original sources, not just an opinion piece with no backup. And in answer to the title question: the article’s cartoon at the top says it all. You either see it or you don’t.

    #47001
    Profile photo of MountainBiker
    MountainBiker
    Survivalist
    member10

    It is an excellent article and definitely worth pondering but my take is somewhat different. To me collapse is the wrong word if describing fundamental changes in society. Collapse is also not the same as decline, though ongoing decline can eventually turn into collapse if not checked. Collapse is when the fundamental structure of society no longer functions.

    South Africa is in the midst of collapse. Their infrastructure is failing due to govt corruption/ineptness, exacerbated by natural disaster (drought). Govt is losing control as evidenced by rising crime and inability to deal with the protests at universities for example. Those that can are seeking a way out of SA.

    In the US a few cities such as Detroit have collapsed. However, the Northeast and Upper MidWest are full of old cities that suffered major decline as the factories that grew them closed. I went to college in one such “mill town” in Massachusetts. That (small) city went through a serious decline but it never collapsed and it has since re-invented itself into something different. One of the largest old mill buildings is now a world class contemporary art museum popular with the NYC crowd. Near the museum is an old rowhouse that used to house factory workers. It is now an upscale boutique hotel catering to that NYC crowd. My son lives in a somewhat larger old mill city that went through a major decline but it never collapsed. It lost 1/3 of its population as the factories closed but it too embarked on a journey re-inventing itself. The population eventually stabilized and over the past 5 years has started to increase again. In both cities the basic societal infrastructure never failed despite the economic dislocation they suffered. Both fundamentally changed into something different. I suppose you might have used the word collapse if you were a factory worker who worked at the same place your father, grandfather, and great-grandfather worked at but the reality is the basic infrastructure and governance never failed.

    I am not saying that the decline we see on various fronts in the US, Europe, and elsewhere cannot turn into collapse. It can and perhaps just needs a triggering event but at present the utilities and communications infrastructures are all fully functional, schools are open, police are patrolling communities, most of which are still in the midst of a long term decline in violent crime rates, roads, bridges and the like are still being maintained, parks and libraries are open, the grocery stores are fully stocked and so forth. In a collapse we’d be seeing all of this starting to come apart.

    #47002
    Tolik
    Tolik
    Survivalist
    member10

    very simple , look at when we were very strong . It was not too long ago either . Say the 1950’s . Acceptance of certain things , destroys a society , socialism , acceptance of homosexuality , getting away from religion , etc . Too much tolerance and permissiveness has led to our decline . Many foreign immigrants cant understand why Amerikans are so obsessed with race , or why we allow people to do certain things . They have a hard time understanding what the Constitution says we can do , and the contradictions , as do we .

    #47004
    Profile photo of Roadracer
    Roadracer
    Survivalist
    member7

    MB: You make a great point about the declining cities reinventing themselves. I grew up in Pittsburgh. I live one block from the Jones & Laughlin mill on the South Side. Pittsburgh always had an interesting dynamic where the Republican millionaires (Mellons & Hillmans for example) and the Democratic politicians worked together to constantly improve the city. As a result when the mills closed they threw themselves into redevelopment. As a result Pittsburgh is a very livable city with high companies growing with the likes of the conglomerates like Heinz food. My last trip to Pittsburgh I had lunch with my sister and her husband at an upscale restaurant on the former site of the steel mill.

    What did it take, it took people with divergent points of view looking to the future and doing what was best for the overall good. Strong family ties, pride of place and an ethos of hard work all played a part. People were poor but they made sure the sidewalk was swept, the windows were clean. People look at the success my wife and I and our kids have achieved and wonder where the determination and drive came from.

    Whether its the Upper Midwest, New England, or the South hard working people forged a great country, and wonder how it could have gone so wrong. It went so wrong because not enough people passed it on to their kids.

    #47005
    Tolik
    Tolik
    Survivalist
    member10

    Roadracer ,
    you hit on some good points , When the Soviet Union broke up , rebuilding didnt start from the top down , it started from the bottom up . Locals fixing and getting things up and running in their area . That is why I feel that this country will be even more quick to rebound after a calamity . People will get things up an running in their local area to better themselves , faster , than if the government tried to ” help ” . All those trained people dont just go away .

    #47006
    Profile photo of 74
    74
    Survivalist
    rnews

    M B,
    I argee with the premise of your comments, but at some point the decline can turn into the finial collapse. So we might not be at the bottom but we can see things starting to collapse. Like an old building falling in on it’s self. Some parts are still standing but the roof is mostly caved in.

    At this point I’d say there is a lot of rot and decay. The roof has sagged and ready to fall and water has been getting into the building a long time. The floors aren’t safe to walk on. We haven’t collapsed yet but it just a matter of time.

    #47008
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    74, call me pessimistic, but your imagery fits my perception quite well. Once the covering protections are largely ruined, the foundation is soon to go too. I see a foundation still apparently in place, but once inspected up close, much of it is rotted and barely holding up the floor and the rest of the building. Whether it falls down or has to be demolished, it’s going to have to be removed before it’s replaced. But does anyone still have the design and building skills to replace it properly? Or will the zoning board even allow it? (The latter may be the bigger problem.)

    #47010
    Profile photo of 74
    74
    Survivalist
    rnews

    Bringing MB’s declining but not failing comments onto my analogy. Buildings can stand a last long time while they are deteriorating. If the roof keeps the water out, almost forever. But once water gets in if it’s not fixed it will rot and fall apart.

    Any building can be repaired or restored no matter how bad the condition has become. The necessary elements to achieve success are:
    There must be an interested party with the energy to finish the job.
    Adequate time must be available
    Adequate money
    Skills
    Knowledge
    Tools
    Materials
    Labor
    Ability to overcome outside influences.

    Sometimes it’s easier and cheaper to knock it down and start over though.

    • This reply was modified 3 years, 9 months ago by Profile photo of 74 74.
    #47012
    Profile photo of L Tecolote
    L Tecolote
    Survivalist
    member8

    “This will be uncomfortable for a lot of people?!?!?” Yeah, about as uncomfortable as an unanesthetized root canal! What La-la Land are these masters of the world living in?

    Yeah. Starving, in the dark, huddled over a campfire fueled by your former library and furniture, really sucks. Let the people who masterminded the collapse have the full experience.

    MB, what happens to a previously productive town, with its economy rebuilt on big city tourism, when a nationwide collapse impoverishes a lot of the big city tourists? Slumming’s fun when the peasants are happy to suck up for $$. When they’re resentful … not so much

    Cry, "Treason!"

    #47015
    Profile photo of MountainBiker
    MountainBiker
    Survivalist
    member10

    Tolik, what you describe is change, not collapse. Nothing is static for very long. Change is a continual process and the fact that some don’t like the changes doesn’t mean it is collapse. For many the changes are instead a positive. It’s all a matter of where you fell on the societal pecking order before the changes I suppose. What some bemoan as evidence of collapse is nothing more than others not like them gaining the same rights or perhaps just making different choices.

    Decline on the other hand can turn into collapse as in Detroit, or it can just be a cyclical reshuffling of the deck as in Pittsburgh. Change is happening faster and faster leaving many people behind, many through no fault of their own but many others who just make really bad choices.

    The changes brought by globalism and technology has made the entire developed world more fragile than ever before, making us more vulnerable to collapse should the right triggering event come along, and geopolitics being what they are, the risk of a triggering event seems to grow with each week that passes. I think it is fair to say we are at greater risk of collapse than ever before but that is different than saying we are in the midst of a collapse.

    #47016
    Profile photo of MountainBiker
    MountainBiker
    Survivalist
    member10

    L Tecolote, that previously productive town was only productive so long as there were people elsewhere to buy their products. An economy built on manufacturing is far better than one built on tourism, but neither works if the underlying economy isn’t strong. The only truly resilient communities any more are those with a sufficient agricultural base, craftsmen, and natural resources so as to be able to fend for themselves if they had to, and even then only if they are located where they wouldn’t be overrun by refugees from elsewhere.

    #47025
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    Collapse, crash, pre-crash crumbling? Whatever we call it, at least no one here has any illusions (or delusions) that “all is well” in the world. I wish I could upload today’s weekly update for one of the monthly Casey Research publications I still subscribe to, but I believe strongly in copyright, so I will not. However, I suspect that the subject line of the email could easily fit in the “fair use” category, so here it is:
    “Time to Short the Dollar”

    The author goes on to say that while no one can be certain (and I think implied in that is “because of all the manipulation”), the remaining folks from the old Casey Research team (before Porter Stansberry took it over and ruined it, as far as I’m concerned) believe that gold and silver have also bottomed out and this is the year for the major upturn.

    Here’s at least one recent public article from their web site that gives some specific clues as to why they think it’s about to shift significantly:

    http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/why-now-is-the-best-time-to-buy-gold-in-a-while

    The newsletter editor whose update I receive, stays in close contact with Doug Casey (still a significant but <50% shareholder in his old business). In the weekly update the editor said the following. So I can hardly wait for the full monthly newsletter that will be coming out shortly.

    I encourage all those who have hesitated to fill in their positions in our precious metals stocks to do so in the nearest term.

    I noted the word “nearest” in that quote. These are guys that watch the Fed closely, knowing that “words mean things.” He didn’t say “near term,” he didn’t say “this year” which is when they expect a major move in gold, he said “nearest term.”

    While I’ve been very disappointed in the recommendations of Casey Research since even before Porter Stansberry and his merry band of used car salesmen arrived on scene, I also note that some other rather credible people have gotten it wrong as well (John Williams who publishes shadowstats.com, for example). This downturn in gold and precious metals stocks is nerve wracking, and very, very long. Still, at this point I’m very comfortable holding on to the position that it’s only a matter of when, not if, that some significant economic events will happen, thereby triggering major societal changes (and potentially international military changes). Whatever we call it, I believe we’re well into the middle if not late stages of it.

    #47052
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous
    Survivalist

    In answer to the topic question I offer the following:

    http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/heres-why-oil-stocks-havent-bottomed-yet

    As usual, I am NOT recommending even bothering to watch the video that pops up, or pursuing any of the offerings at Casey Research anymore. I just recognized that they still put out a rather substantial amount of publicly available solid research. The implications of this article (recommend it be read in its entirety) are massive, given that the oil companies have not cut dividends, are budgeting on the basis of $60 oil, and oil has been well below $60 for quite some time (currently HALF that, and expected to go possibly down to $20). Once they are forced to cut dividends to shareholders, there will be a stampede out of oil stocks, accompanied by a general market stampede out of most everything else. Picture a piano being lowered from an upper-story window to the ground in a major city, and the sidewalk below is jammed with people. And the cable breaks.

    And with respect to the U.S. specifically, I found this great quote by Senator Sam Ervin from 1973 (anybody remember ol’ Sam?):

    “So long as I have a mind to think, a tongue to speak, and a heart to love my country, I shall deny that the Constitution confers any arbitrary power on any President, or empowers any President to convert George Washington’s America into Caesar’s Rome.”

    We have absolutely clear evidence that the Constitution of the United States is meaningless, not only because of what Obama is doing, but perhaps far more importantly, because of what Congress is allowing him to do.

    So, “… In The Midst Of Collapse?” Uh, personally I don’t have any question, when the fundamentals of a nation’s government effectively no longer exist.

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