June 29, 2014 at 5:44 pm #17441
pbbrown0, there is no doubt but that the Titans of Wall St and DC have been masterful in kicking the can down the road for longer than I’d of thought possible, but when it no longer is possible I fear what we’re looking at is WWIII resetting a new world order.June 29, 2014 at 6:47 pm #17452
MountainBiker it is not even the Wall St that are masterful, it is the Fed printing the dollar, they printed so much. The economy would have collapsed already if it wasn’t for the printing of money.July 1, 2014 at 4:57 am #17546
Locally where I am the economy has collapsed but you wouldn’t know by looking at it. Therein lies the problem. Despite all the finagling the books don’t add up. The expenses/mandates are too high and out of control. On the personal level that means we’ve quit spending on luxuries. What we’ve got is it. Can’t add to the preps, can’t buy a new vehicle. Its like the depression – use it up, wear it out. I saw a bumper sticker today. It said, I kid you not, “Pursue good stuff”. Our motto for the future.
PURSUE GOOD STUFF – ITS NOW OR NEVER.July 1, 2014 at 10:56 am #17556
We operate a few retail stores. Can tell you that people in all walks of life in our wide area of service are being very careful with what money they have.Can’t tell you how many times a day you see someone pick something up, walk around with it, then put it back. Of course the lack of confidence in our President and leaders doesn’t help people’s willingness to spend their money either. The economy around here is in a death spiral I believe – as you say Brulen, ‘you wouldn’t know by looking’. On the outside, everything looks the same, cars in town going here and there…people in and out of stores. Sun shining. Music playing. Lots of big ‘estates’ on the market – those that aren’t have cut back on their normal maintenance as evidenced by the state of the fencing, mowing/weed eating, fields etc. The plant nurseries had the big rush this spring after a long, hard winter and then …nothing. I talked to a few of them just the other day. I know very few people that don’t bring up the economy or money and their fears whenever we talk.
I am just concentrating on diversifying my income stream best I can with the time I have available. We shall see.
One new stream I decided to pursue from happenstance. Someone down the road was clearing/cutting down a bunch of dead trees that were around the house/might fall on it in a storm (happened already last winter). Sign by road said free future firewood you haul. Had just been investigating cost of firewood recently. Have spent the week with the young guys hauling and splitting wood like mad men! (Oh my back!) But, we now have, so far about 25 cords of wood to sell this fall. At $250 a cord delivered or $200 pickup we think the week’s labor will be worth it. We’ll get back at it next week.July 1, 2014 at 5:02 pm #17593
I lived in China for nearly five years, on and off, between 2003 and 2010. The Chinese leadership have been aware for at least that long of the dangers of their economy being dependent on exports. For the last few years, they’ve been making very serious efforts to rebalance the economy, making stuff for internal consumption. As another poster said, they’re also going all out to develop renewable energy sources. Their big problem is water – not sure what they’ll do about that. I bet they’ve got some smart people working on it, though. By the way, some people commented about the lack of Chinese creativity: you should lose that idea. The Chinese have some very, very smart people – many of whom currently work in the US, but won’t always.
I currently live in Russia. The Russians, Putin included, are ordinary, rational people. They are pursuing their own national interests as best they can. If those interests happen not to fit in with the interests of the Western countries, that doesn’t make the Russians mad, evil, or power-hungry; it just means that they, like us, look after #1 first. Russians are actually nice people. Most of the Russians I know really like the West, many holiday there, and they would genuinely love to live peacefully, on friendly terms, with the West. However, they are NOT prepared to be treated with anything less than respect, and on equal terms; they have their pride, just like Westerners. Sadly, Western policy towards Russia has been disrespectful and exploitative ever since modern Russia was established in 1991. Russians naturally resent this – as anyone would who has been taken advantage of.
So, Russia and China are working together so that they can shape the world according to their own interests. It is within their ability to create an economic sphere that’s independent of the West. The EU, I think, could cope with this, and forge a new relationship. The US, determined to be in charge of everything, won’t – so is more likely to be cut off. I’m not sure that its economy can survive that.
So… In terms of SHTF, I suspect that Russia and China are better placed individually, and much better placed together, to weather any coming shocks. The EU is, despite its Eurozone problems, also likely to survive as a part of Eurasia. The US… I’m not sure if its highly-specialised economy could cope with the end of the petro-dollar/end of cheap Chinese products/etc.
Sources of shocks: for the EU: refugees from MENA and sub-Saharan Africa. The much-discussed energy threat from Russia is a paper tiger; it simply wouldn’t benefit Russia to cut off the gas. For the US: climate change is the biggie. The threat is as big as that facing China, but the US isn’t preparing, where China is. All the indications are that the US drought is going to end agriculture, and then habitability, in the south and west of the country.
So: I expect a heavy crash in the US; a series of lesser shocks in the EU, and some bad times in Russia and China, which will be ridden out.July 1, 2014 at 5:33 pm #17606
Interesting perspective, I share some of your veiws regarding Russia’s & China’s economic viability. I don’t believe drought will be a big factor in terms of food production in th US though. An icreadible amount of food is imported from Mexico & South America. Except for almonds I don’t think I have eaten produce from California for a while. If these sources were to dissappear there would be a resurgence in farming on the east coast where millions of acres lie fallow.July 1, 2014 at 6:32 pm #17608
I’ve read a number of worrying articles about the end of the Californian farming industry. Of course, I don’t know to what extent they’re accurate, or whether those products could be replaced from elsewhere, as you suggest. There is also the issue of whether USians will be able to afford to import them any more…
It’s more than just California, though – I’m also reading about the collapse of beef farming in Texas and elsewhere – and that’s not even beginning to talk about what I’m reading about agriculture in the central US states as the Ogallala aquifer becomes depleted…
More: apart from agriculture, it’s the habitability of the cities that interests me – it appears that there just isn’t enough water for the number of people living there. There are remedies, such as banning swimming pools etc – but from Georgia across to California, water conflicts seem to be on the rise. It seems to me that water controls will have to become more and more repressive, and the standard of living lower and lower. Ultimately, people will start moving away from these ever-drier zones, and some cities such as Las Vegas could return to being tiny towns in a very short time. If there are large numbers of internal climate refugees, where will they go – and how will the people who are already there react? What will happen to the industries which can’t function any more?
There’s scope here for a major, uncontrolled and unplanned-for disruption to the US economy within the next few years, or so it seems to me.
Of course, it could be that what I’m reading is wrong (though I get it from what I consider to be reliable and reputable sources). It’s quite possible; much of what I read about China, Russia, and the EU in the same places often seems completely disconnected from my own experience of life in these countries.July 1, 2014 at 7:09 pm #17612
“There’s scope here for a major, uncontrolled and unplanned-for disruption to the US economy within the next few years, or so it seems to me” Bogatyr.
I think we all agree with that, how it unfolds remains to be seen.July 1, 2014 at 7:40 pm #17615
Interesting views, Bogatyr, I have a question for you. What big invention has the Chinese invented in the last five or ten years(product) like iPhone, so on. They only make what others invent. Also who made China what it is today? It was the openning of trade with the U. S. A. the largest consumers in the world. In China or Russia how many times do they buy a t-shirt? In the U. S. A. we but one every time there is an event. Do you know that I have new pants in my closet that still have a tag with the price I paid. I buy just because I like the item, in Russia and China they buy because they need the product.
The sales in China and Russia in products are still not equal to the U. S. A. There is no country in the world that has the consumer base that is in the U. S. A. so if the U. S.A. collapses China may keep going BUT it will never be what it was, never find the consumers.July 1, 2014 at 8:20 pm #17624
Keep in mind the Chinese are buying gold AND American properties etc like crazy. They know what’s coming and are preparing, unlike us.July 1, 2014 at 8:34 pm #17625
@Freedom: the Chinese entered the global economy quite recently, after a long absence. They needed to catch up quickly, and set out to do just that. That’s involved a lot of theft of intellectual property; frankly, they’re quite open about that. It’s not a uniquely Chinese action, though: other developing nations have done exactly the same thing. During the 19th century, another new entrant to the global economy was also infamous for its theft of other people’s inventions.
You shouldn’t confuse a deliberate policy of catching up as quickly as possible (by whatever means) with an inability to innovate. The Chinese are a thoughtful, inventive, and deeply civilised people. Don’t underestimate them!July 1, 2014 at 9:28 pm #17645
I do not confuse anything at all just what big item have the Chinese invented that has made billions? None! They only make thing for the ones that invent products. I think that the same was said about the Japanese in the 1980’s and that there economy was buying up all the valuable properties in the U. S., so what happen? Many things happen to Japan and Japan is not China. The Japanese do invent and produce new products.
China needs one thing to make it FREEDOM! Without FREEDOM the people are only working for the government and the government will own your invention. That doesn’t work anywhere.July 1, 2014 at 9:47 pm #17646
Remember No freedom = inability to innovate! This is why for more then 20 years the Chinese have stolen everything that they make and all of there stolen intellectual properties become old by the time then make them and have to go out of there way to steal again. We invent faster then they can steal. Freedom to invent and own is way to big for them to overcome. Dictatorships has never been the inventor of new products.
You need to not get confused, which countries in the world own the biggest inventions(Billions). I do not know of much inventions from a Communist or Dictatorship governments.
I just do not see it, all I see is copy this and copy that for China and 90% of there products are no good. The only Chinese products that are any good are products that the Europeans or Americans put up shop and show them how it is made like Apple, Dell, and many other U. S. products. Even the Japanese Companies set up shop there to make the products.
What Billion dollar brand name is Chinese that the world knows?July 13, 2014 at 2:59 pm #18634
Whirlibird, the economists I read say the economic collapse is unavoidable by any means. It can be delayed to a point but there is only so much anyone can do given the reality of the total depbt which is far far more than $17 trillion. The total US debt including all unfunded liabilities is over $120 trillion. Worldwide, derivatives, which are essentially worthless paper, amount to another several hundred Trillion, much of which is held by US banks.
Add to that a growing group called BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, & Spain) was established specifically to trade with each other using their currencies, not the US dollar. As that group grows, it will put increasing pressure on the dollar which will apply greater pressure for a collapse. Add to that that some countries are already trading oil in their currencies which is another huge negative pressure on the dollar.
On top of all that, collapsing the dollar is a requirement of the globalist criminals who want to force their NWO on the entire world. Added together, the combined forces pushing for the collapse of the dollar seems, in the viewpoint of the economists I read (like Porter Stansberry) to make the collapse inevitable with no way to stop it.
As for the timing, that is beyond anyone’s control though it seems likely it will be sooner rather than later as the globalists also realize there is a growing movement here in America to put an end to the corruption in America by ending the government/multinational corporations/media oligarchy who are pushing the country to collapse. Of course Ovomit wants to remain dictator for life so from that perspective, the collapse must take place before he leaves office or his dictatorship will be over as he will be replaced by a new wanna be dictator by TPTB.
Who knows for sure but I am betting that the contrarian economists like Stansberry and many others are correct and that the collapse will be sooner rather then later.
For God, Family, Country, & Liberty!July 13, 2014 at 3:24 pm #18636
Ghost Prime, Great writing. I am with you on all your points. The bankers and the news media never talk about derivative debt. The derivative debt is what the bankers have stolen from all of us and the world. We do not know were all of that cash has gone. Maybe it’s in gold, silver and diamonds underground somewhere. The 17.5 T national debt is small potato’s compared to the derivative debt which is somewhere in the 120 T maybe more.
I also believe the collapse will happen before 2016. But O will have a very hard time keeping control of a dictatorship. O is not the best hardcore leader to be a dictator and there maybe someone that we do not know right now that will take over power.
We will not have much control over what will happen so what we need to do is prepare. In this forum we can help each other to teach each other how to prepare best. We also need to PM each other on anything that we can help or teach.
Hopefully this will give us an upper hand in the coming collapse and the SHTF which can go into a civil war.
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