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  • #30691
    Profile photo of Meduseld
    Meduseld
    Survivalist
    member2

    <div class=”d4p-bbp-quote-title”>c wrote:</div>This will not help with computer modeling but have you read Dimitri Orlov’s Five Stages of Collapse? He watched the collapse of the USSR. He has five stages of collapse.<br>
    “Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost.<br>
    Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost.<br>
    Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost.<br>
    Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost.<br>
    Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in “the goodness of humanity” is lost.”

    Personally, I have never read any of his books. Just remember he’s a peak-oil guy. (I find peak-oil people a bit tiresome.) He has a very bleak view on the ability of humanity to use creativity to solve problems. Though, Dr Joseph Tainter in the Collapse of Complex Societies believes it is the mundane actions of solving problems that actually brings on collapse. (???)

    Dimitri Orlov on The Five Stages of Collapse

    http://cluborlov.blogspot.ca/p/the-five-stages-of-collapse.html

    Dr Joseph Tainter lecturing on Collapse of Complex Societies

    <div style=”padding-bottom: 56.2667%;” class=”avia-iframe-wrap”><iframe src=”http://www.youtube.com/embed/G0R09YzyuCI?feature=oembed&wmode=opaque” allowfullscreen=”” width=”1500″ frameborder=”0″ height=”844″></iframe></div>
    The one thing I find interesting about Orlov’s theory is that he see social and cultural collapse as an end point. Many collapse visions see social and cultural collapse as something that happens very quickly. In this point, I think he is right. In my opinion, social and cultural collapse is the last thing to happen. For example, a Christian would rather die then give up on their faith is God’s goodness. A good Christian would rather die then stop living by the principles outlined in the 10 commandments. When devote Christians, Moslims or Jews stop believing in the goodness of God, I would say that is the point of cultural collapse.

    Of course, I have no idea what the future will bring. Black swan events by definition, are impossible to predict in advance. Good luck with your modeling.

    Whew, C, this is overwhelming but clearly educational. Will have a good look at it in the morning and give you a shout after that.

    #30705
    Malgus
    Malgus
    Survivalist
    member8

    Meduseld,

    Take Orlov with a grain of salt. Yes, he’s a Doomer, but to me, it always seems like he has some ulterior motive… selling something, pushing something… and I’ve sharpshot his articles before.

    Not to say the guy isn’t intelligent. Just saying that I sometimes have problems with his articles…

    But, don’t take my word for it. Form your own opinions based on what Orlov says…

    By the way, I read your OP. Went looking for “Risk Management Software”… if you’re looking for some software to help you out in doing whatever it is you want to do, brother you got a big hog to eat… there’s gobs of software out there, but you have to be more specific to narrow down your choices, otherwise you’ll be there till Rapture looking for the right one… anything from “freeware” to custom designed software costing multiples of thousands of dollars…

    The wicked flee when none pursueth..." - Proverbs 28:1

    #30738
    Profile photo of tweva
    tweva
    Survivalist
    rreallife

    Meduseld – I understand what you are looking for but have a feeling you won’t find just one program (especially free) but may have to utilize several to accomplish your objective.

    I em’d a friend still in international finance/venture capital and asked what software they use (they own fleets of cargo vessels and other infrastructure and commodity investments that they of course expend a great deal of effort regarding modeling what if scenarios) The basic software they use is this. They have an IT department and a risk management unit however and this software costs in the thousands.

    Explaining basics of what you were looking for and why, he suggests that you look here. He thinks that this is what you are looking to do? The softwre company that makes the software they use, based here in CA is ESRI. have a version for home use. Go HERE. He hopes that helps you and wishes you well. (He grew up in Rhodesia).

    Hope that helps you somewhat. Bless you.

    #30758
    Selco
    Selco
    Survivalist
    member6

    A few friends have been talking along the lines of military intelligence-style scenario planning/assessment, but with regard to social instability in South Africa. Maybe an illustration will make sense: if we lose another 10% of our electricity grid, if we achieve the predicted shortfall of 10% of our budget next year, and if our water system’s current crumble accelerates, if El Nino 2015 ruins crops and food prices soar, if our credit rating is lowered again and interest rates increase or inflation soars and poor people become poorer, and if unemployment reaches 30% (from 25% at present), what will happen in society? Will civil insurrection result? And how soon will it happen?

    I like the your idea and points Meduseld, but I think that sometimes it is simply impossible to put all important info in calculation simply because way how those things (start of SHTF) works is simply sometimes too strange or unpredictable.

    For example some society or country by all signs (rise of unemployment, crime, falling of some things etc.) could go to s..t in next three months, but in reality is it going to fall now or in next two years can depend of the events like simple strike on local factory, or simple lost football game of the local club.

    Orlov is good with those stages, but sometimes society can still work even all four stages are here. Sometimes society need just one small event more, like that football game riot.
    It need spark.
    Sometimes things just unfold like nobody expected. There are too many “unknowns” in formula.

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