According to the observation chart they lost continuity from the oct 11 to oct 16 when they found it again. Then they made a new prediction. Somewhere between earth and moon. Lets say 50/50. Good odds for vegas. Short odds.
A few years ago we visited meteor crater. Thats pretty impressive. Craters like that are scattered all over the NE. You just dont see them. Vegetation, weathering disguise them now. The world is a roadmap of destruction. The closest ive ever come to an event is a space rock hit a guys car here and was found in the trunk. A few miles away. Space junk isnt worth as much as a good piece of asteroid. The russian rock hunters have all the luck. Life is good for them.