There is no doubt but that another recession is in the works, the difference from the last one being it’ll be harder to stimulate the economy via a lowering of interest rates being they are still artificially low. Trying to do it with massive govt spending will also have a larger tail to it this time given the implications of endless trillion dollar deficits. War is usually an effective way to divert the public’s attention and stimulate an economy however.
I know someone who sits on the Board of the Federal Reserve, not NY but one of the other branches, and to listen to him you’d think the economy was just looking better and better. Hopefully they are not all as out of touch as he is.