If they do, it becomes a sudden test of NATO (Art. 5). Check out this blast from the past (6 years ago).
Note how unfriendly Turkey was even back then. It looks like they chose to provoke a crisis with the Russian shoot-down. And unfortunately, just like his immediate siding with his Harvard buddy (Professor Henry Louis Gates Jr.) that resulted in the “beer summit,” Obama is at it again, immediately siding with Turkey (“Turkey has a right to defend its territory and air space.”). Was Turkey totally wrong? Well, we don’t really know where the Russian jet actually was, first of all. Second, a 17 SECOND incursion (by Turkey’s own claim) into Turkish air space does not warrant an unintercepted shoot-down when fully armed F-16 fighters were already up in the vicinity. Obama couldn’t have had all the facts at the time he spouted off about Turkey’s “right” even if they technically did have that right. And where was his condemnation of the rebel fighters shooting a totally defenseless, parachuting pilot? This was a carefully choreographed (and I believe coordinated) shoot-down. And now Putin has an excuse to see just what size (if any) pelotas Obama has (or anybody else in NATO) given Article 5 of the NATO Treaty (an attack on one is an attack on all philosophy). I would not be surprised to see Putin strike, expecting Obama to do what he did with his red line in Syria – nothing. The alternative is WWIII, potentially (heading into a nasty winter).
The other scenario I can think of right now is that since Russia HAS been supplying the bulk of Turkey’s gas, there would be retaliation against Russian citizens in Turkey if the Turkish people were freezing their buns off starting next week. But then if that happens, I suspect Iran will step in to rescue Turkey, and we’ve got an even bigger mess with our NATO “ally” Turkey cozying up to Iran for literal survival of their people through the winter.
And when will America wake up to the fact that this is NOT an inept president – just a very evil one, intent on destroying the social and political order by any means necessary, as taught by his mentor (Frank) and that lovely couple, Cloward and Piven, who merely updated the method of carrying out the 167 year old master plan?