“OK, Let’s just say the Earth is 1* of arc wide, in it’s orbit around the Sun (it is less) That would mean a Solar Flare, let’s say 10* of width @ 93,000,000 miles from the Sun would have a 1 in 36 chance of hitting Earth. Now consider that all the planets are in basically the same plane around the Sun, and that it is also (greatly exaggerated) 1* of arc wide that way… now it is 1 in 36 times 360 which is a 1 in 12,960 chance, but we “rounded up” in every case, so let’s just say it’s off by a factor of 10 now. almost a 1 in 130,000 chance of any solar flare impacting the Earth. And wasn’t this Solar Storm on the Sun’s SOUTH POLE? That means it is shooting as far away from the Solar Plane of planets as much as possible. That flare has Zero Chance of hitting Earth”
I wanted to comment more on your theory but time didn’t permit. Your example would only hold true if the sun’s radiation was projected a perfect 90* from the surface and radiated outward without dispersion. We know in fact that is not true. If it was true the sun would appear much smaller then it is and you would only see light emitted from the one spot directly aligned with the earth. But we see the whole side facing the earth not one point. So I’m making an assumption that a solar flare that erupts anywhere on this side of the sun has the potential to emit radiation in our direction. It would seem natural that the flares closer to the great circle pointed at us would be the most dangerous, but looking at flares I don’t think it matters at all. See the picture attached.
You observation is correct, but looking at your example pic, notice the relative size of the surface of the sun? Those are small flares. Larger ones will “in effect” be much less wide spread as they reach out to a greater distance.
In truth, the Earth is ALWAYS swimming in ejecta from the Sun, at all times.
"ROGUE ELECTRICIAN" Hoping to be around to re-energize the New World.....
Cogito, ergo armatus sum