Profile photo of Meduseld

<div class=”d4p-bbp-quote-title”>c wrote:</div>This will not help with computer modeling but have you read Dimitri Orlov’s Five Stages of Collapse? He watched the collapse of the USSR. He has five stages of collapse.<br>
“Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost.<br>
Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost.<br>
Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost.<br>
Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost.<br>
Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in “the goodness of humanity” is lost.”

Personally, I have never read any of his books. Just remember he’s a peak-oil guy. (I find peak-oil people a bit tiresome.) He has a very bleak view on the ability of humanity to use creativity to solve problems. Though, Dr Joseph Tainter in the Collapse of Complex Societies believes it is the mundane actions of solving problems that actually brings on collapse. (???)

Dimitri Orlov on The Five Stages of Collapse


Dr Joseph Tainter lecturing on Collapse of Complex Societies

<div style=”padding-bottom: 56.2667%;” class=”avia-iframe-wrap”><iframe src=”http://www.youtube.com/embed/G0R09YzyuCI?feature=oembed&wmode=opaque” allowfullscreen=”” width=”1500″ frameborder=”0″ height=”844″></iframe></div>
The one thing I find interesting about Orlov’s theory is that he see social and cultural collapse as an end point. Many collapse visions see social and cultural collapse as something that happens very quickly. In this point, I think he is right. In my opinion, social and cultural collapse is the last thing to happen. For example, a Christian would rather die then give up on their faith is God’s goodness. A good Christian would rather die then stop living by the principles outlined in the 10 commandments. When devote Christians, Moslims or Jews stop believing in the goodness of God, I would say that is the point of cultural collapse.

Of course, I have no idea what the future will bring. Black swan events by definition, are impossible to predict in advance. Good luck with your modeling.

Whew, C, this is overwhelming but clearly educational. Will have a good look at it in the morning and give you a shout after that.