It does help, me, Toby. And a friend of mine has just given me a couple of reasons why I am asking for too much, especially if I think I can get a free version.
But here is why I am being persistent (apologies in advance for the example, but I can’t think of a better one) :
I used to work in a short-term projects industry in which we had to have a Risk Assessment done for every project. I ran the projects, so I have held scores of those Disaster Management Consultants’ assessments in my own hands. And, in principle, they are precisely what I want. In principle, but not in practise. They were clumsy Excel spreadsheets written by competent guys, but certainly not statistical scientists, with a matrix combining factors such as:
Risk of scaffolding collapsing – 1/2/3/4/5
No. of People Likely to be Beneath Scaffolding – 1/2/3 etc.
Political Sensitivity of Project – 1/2/3
Risk of Protests Against Project –
Risk of Protests Being Violent
(combine all factors with their relevant weightings and get)
1. NATURE(S) OF THREAT
2. THREATS’ LEVELS
3. LIKELIHOOD OF THREAT BEING REALISED
4. IMMINENCE OF THREAT
Let’s call that the Hyundai i10. In principle it is a motor car, but no good for speeds over 80 m.p.h. and hopeless on rough roads. I am absolutely convinced that there must be a Ford Ranger out there. I don’t need a Porsche Cayenne, but I need a better version of the Hyundai i10 – which I have seen with my own eyes. I am certain that Ford Rangers exist. They must do.
If the Pentagon and S&P can do national risk assessments, and so can my old friend the Disaster Consultant – in his wonky Excel spreadsheets, then there has got to be something in between.
Thanks for your time and patience. I appreciate it.