Oh, there’s no doubt about it, MB. Actuarial scientists must assess all factors when banks plan ahead, surely? Presumably economists do the same. And if they are doing it, then there must be people doing it in the government. I can’t see how Fitch and Moody’s could not be doing their ratings via software which takes into account everything from drought to civil disobedience, and from food supplies to fuel rationing, and every little thing in between, such as whether a power crisis occurs in winter or summer, and whether road maintenance is affecting delivery of raw materials to major exporters upon whom the country is dependent for foreign exchange. Surely they even take into account sunshine levels in order to do a reasoned analysis of… whatever? Otherwise 90% of what they do is hearsay and speculative. I can’t see how it could be anything but comprehensive (the work that “the organisations” to which you refer are doing).
And that is not to mention that twenty years ago the South African Defence Force Military Intelligence used to do precisely what we have been doing (amateurishly) i.e. “If such-and-such transformer gets blown up, if X townships’s schools burn down, and if Putco Bus Corp. goes on strike, what will be the nature of the threat in Z region (riots, strikes, increased UDF activity, civil disobedience, necklacing of collaborators), what level will it be at, and how imminent is it?” They’d take into account what season of the year it was, whether there were supplementary schools in the neighbourhood, whether it was a high school or primary school whose kids were now on the streets, what would be the knock-on effect, and so on.
What we have been analysing, as seriously and scientifically as we can, is obviously almost exactly along those lines.
Between the three leading participants, we have settled on maximums of 1 year (them) and 36 months (me) prior to civil insurrection brought on by utter frustration amongst the poor as a result of general collapse. I take into account non-quantifiable factors such as the very patient temperament which Africans have regarding hardship, and the fact that Africans tend (tend) not to revolt against their “big men”, which is why everyone from Blaise Campaore to Bob Mugabe have hung onto power for endless decades in spite of the awful hardships they have visited on their peoples, which is why my estimate is longer.
Bear in mind that – amongst a thousand other examples which would throw northern hemisphere/western citizens into a froth if they happened in their countries – we have had three separate power crises in three days (this evening it was announced that Cahora Bassa dam hydroelctric plant cannot run at full capacity any longer until overdue maintenance is done), on top of the nationwide power crises which we have had intermittently since 2007. It is starting to happen quickly, now. There is a very specific, highly-particular, reason why our civil infrastrucure is collapsing, and why it is collapsing right this minute, but my kids are about to arrive after Boy Scouts so I must run. Thanks for your interest.