74 I hear you, I really do. Its the largest outbreak that has ever occurred. There was a laboratory test that proved infection was possible between cages, technically that is air born. I can dig for it if you want to see it, its really only a matter of time anyway with this rate of infection and the rate of mutation.
Unfortunately I do not have enough information from the ground in africa. Not a lot of cameras, tweets or blogs coming out of those regions. Ive listened to several de briefings from doctors, nurses etc tho that suggested the news reported numbers are low balled.
What I can say with relative certainty, is that assuming the reported cases number is accurate, and even considering the margin of error for un reported cases, that the current math, 21 day doubling time etc, is right on par with an RO of 2, and not the 1.4 they where claiming on the main stream. (there is a video on youtube called “the most important video you will ever see” that has a lot to do with exponential growth, and calculating doubling times. When I was in high school, the math class that concentrated on scientific calculators hit on this with the exponential function button. I worked my ass off to get into advanced math during junior high, for high school, we did not use calculators. No I did not pass that course, I dropped out that year, 2 planes hit the towers, I decided money had become a new priority… wish I had bought gold with it…. 500% would be nice about now *shrug*.
Unfortunately one way or the other, you and I have to wait another week or two before we know or not about air born transmission. The only positive thing I can think to say, is that the air plane was a perfect petri dish to find out.
Africa had a great many factors to consider on top of the usual suspects of transmission when calculating an RO… like kissing the corpse at a funeral etc… You don’t usually put that into the equation you use to get an RO, its just to big of an unkown factor, you cannot assume all familys are the same size, or attend and all that bs.
RO is really just a fancy way of saying average infection rate, and as we all know averages are averages, they are not definitive or exact, by any means.
Never be afraid to do the righteous thing, nothing righteous is ever easy.