I read a report that the quarantined area is very porous and people are escaping through buildings, swimming around the road blocks and bribing the solider guards. You have to figure at least 10X the number reported are infected because that is about the rate of infection for one person to infect others. They are admitting under reporting by as much as 75% to start with, so there could be 12,000 infected with obvious symptoms. If they all infect 10 people 120,000 people will display symptoms in 21 days. At that rate In 42 days from now it could jump to 1.2 million infected, then another quantum jump every additional 21 days.