#21560
Malgus
Malgus
Survivalist
member8

Depends what the R0 – “R-naught” – is…

That’s how many people an infected person will infect.

R0 is the number of new cases that a single infected person will cause, on average. In most seasons, R0 for influenza is just below 2. In the devastating 1918 pandemic, it was likely above 3. With an R0 that high, the number of cases will grow exponentially, unless patients remain isolated or quickly receive effective treatment.

If the value of R0 is less than one, it means that one infectious individual would generate, on average, less than one new infections. (In other words, only a few such individuals would cause a new infection but most would not, making the average number of new infections less than one.) In this case, the disease would die out. On the other hand, the value of R0 could be greater than one. In this case, an infectious individual would generate, on average, more than one new infection, and a disease outbreak would occur. Thus, R0 = 1 is known as the threshold value of R0.

Given a realistic disease model with R0 greater than one, a public health agency might well want to do something to try to reduce the chance of a disease outbreak. The reproduction number can provide some guidance as to how to go about this.

R0 is calculated from the equations for the disease model, and is an expression composed of the model’s parameters and the initial values of the variables. In many cases, these parameters and initial values can be manipulated by humans to increase or decrease R0. Thus, examining the expression for R0 can help us figure out the best way to try to prevent a disease outbreak.

http://www.kcvs.ca/site/projects/modeling_files/west_nile/main%20text/pages/disease_control.html

http://www.kcvs.ca/site/projects/modeling_files/west_nile/definitions/Equation%20Definitions/Equation_7_def.html

Bottom line: An R-naught of 2 would be bad… an R-naught of 3 would probably cause martial law to be declared, at least in some areas. Above 3? I don’t even want to think about it…

Remember that anonymous Greek politician… “The job of government is not to tell the truth. The job of government is to instill confidence”….

By any means necessary… including lying their asses off to you. No matter what you see – which is just what they will admit to – rest assured that the problem is much, much worse.

Not trying to panic you all. Just saying that governments spew bullshit to placate the masses. I don’t believe that the WHO or the CDC has anything close to a handle on this… an whatever they admit to is only a fraction of what’s really going on…

The wicked flee when none pursueth..." - Proverbs 28:1

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