It goes this way, Anselm. People, even preppers, are caught up in the normalcy bias. If it hasn’t happened in their lifetime or in their country, then it is discounted as unlikely or impossible nearly, to happen. Ask Selco. Had the war that he was caught in been anticipated? He has mentioned time and again how he and others around him were sure that it wasn’t that bad; that it would end soon; that it wasn’t what they had heard via the grapevine, wanting to believe the media’s take on it. No, they waited because they were not convinced that it was as bad as it was. It hadn’t happened before. How could it happen now? So you wait, expecting things to improve. As you wait, your chances of escape grow smaller and smaller till finally you are caught in the snare. Now it is too late. These innocent people were caught up in the normalcy bias.
Things DO happen. Even things that are terrible and long lasting. Now ask Selco how he feels about it. Will he be more prepared for something that could last longer or be more terrible? Will he be quicker to look at the reality or take the chance that it is going to be bad? I am very sure that if you go through that and survive, you will have a more realistic attitude toward it.
Here is another thing to think about. Would you rather be prepared for a major, long lasting crisis but it only turns out to be small, insignificant or short lived; or would you rather prepare for a minor event that is short lived – perhaps just a few days or weeks at the most – but have it be that unbelievable TEOTWAWKI or something equivalent happen? If I was going to be comfortable, I would rather plan big and not need it all, than to plan small and have to say “OOPS!, who would have believed that one?”
If I prepare for the big one, then I am prepared for anything. If I prepare for the small one, then I am not prepared for anything larger than my current preparations. Then I am up a creek without a paddle if something comes along that I didn’t anticipate happening – something that was unlikely.
We are talking about our life and the lives of our family. It is not something to gamble with.