I have watched the increasingly complex and unbalanced economic realities developing and heading for a tipng point for decades. As leaders of governments and banking systems have continued to distort the natural dynamics of economics n order to gain political or monetary advantage for themselves and “their own” they have also struggled to keep the leaning tower from toppling. Meanwhile they have continued to manipulate “public” opinion withn their spheres of influence to support and accept these distortions. The current world economic system has become an upsidedown Eifel Tower held together with duct tape and baleing wire.
The economic advantage/disadvantage pressures among countries and collections of countries is growing rapidly as is the increasing instability of economic fundamentals, but No One wants a war, because they are too costly to the winners (not to mention the loosers). However, there will be a trigger or event (perhaps a major natural disaster, a major economic event, or perhaps a sudden “political disaster” unanticipated by the current leaders) that de-stabalizes the economy or economic controls in one country or another sufficently for the government leaders in that country to react badly and foolishly. The consequence of ths reaction will trigger a domino sequence of reactions from other countries until an opportunistic “non-conventional war” results. The collapse/war will affect different countries and regions in different ways, but the new normal will be a nightmare lastng years for Europe and North America. Other regions such as Russia, China, and others who sell most of their goods to Europe and North America will feel the unanticipated aftershocks on a slightly delayed basis.
The biggest danger is the level of desperation reached by the governments in trying to control these events, and the desperation of the public in various places trying to adapt to the “collapse”. My guess is that within this decade the geopolitical map will have signficantly changed, but the economic and societal “maps” will have become unrecognizable.
The bottom line for most of us reading this is that the next few years will be very dangerous, and within ten years we will all be basically starting over in a changed world.