1974, with all due respect I did read the article. I have also read 100’s of other peer reviewed articles from respected journals, many written by people with as much gravitas as Mr Bengtsson [My 3rd year research project was on the factors the predict whether people will prepare for a disaster event].
I agree 100% that the chance of the global community taking the necessary steps to avoid climate change is Nil. This doesn’t mean that it is not a real, measurable and scientifically verifiable event with real implications for the way that I and any children i have will have to live.
In psychology in relation to change, particularly scary changes, people experience both denial, and what is called confirmation bias – we tend to seek information that reinforces what we wish to be true, rather than what IS true, this is a very human thing to experience.
It may lead to people rejecting a wealth of evidence based on one exception, it can also lead to ‘blaming’ [most commonly seen as conspiracy theories]. IN both cases it is an adaptive response as it allows the individual to ignore a hard truth as something they cannot influence and therefore have no personal responsibility for.
Relinquishing control of the situation in many cases leads to a reduction in stress levels; it can be shelved as something ‘that just is’ and allows better focus on events that have more salience [immediate greater importance] in many cases that can be the difference between life and death.
I say this not to belittle you or insult your intelligence, or that of Mr Bengtsson. Nor am I so arrogant to imply that I’m certain beyond all doubt that I’m correct; a true scientist is NEVER certain that s/he is right. [The fundement of the scientific method is that whatever hypothesis you hold may be disproved or called into question at a later date by new evidence].
It is my conclusions however, based on the weight of evidence, are that:
1. Climate change is happening at increasing speed and having observable effects of the frequency, duration and severity of extreme weather events.
2. Increased atmospheric CO2 levels are contributing to a oceanic dieback that has potentially significant implications.
3. There have been increases in sea levels and reductions in ice reserves in polar ice caps and glaciers world wide over the last 100 years that will see sea levels continue to rise
4. The earth is only a few degrees away from the release of frozen methane deposits that will accelerate the greenhouse effect.
5. It would appear highly likely that the above events are either caused by, or at the least, exacerbated by, humanity use of fossil hydrocarbons as fuels and mass release of CO2
I freely admit that I may be wrong in my conclusions, or that I may have been mislead, only god is Omnipotent and omnipresent.
HOWEVER, it is better to plan and prepare as if these are truths, rather than simply likelihoods or possibilities, and be wrong and thought a fool, than to discount them entirely and then be blindsided later.
“Better to have a gun and not need it, than need a gun a not have it” no?